Brief thread on US China "game" strategy. 1) China has made it clear for a long time they will make no material changes to policy. 2) The counter question then becomes are you willing to accept their "rules" of the game going forward or does one believe they need and are 1/n
Worth challenging? 3) If China will not make material changes to policies, then in an important way, it does not matter which strategy is chosen to pursue policy change in China by the US. This is why I have always said, tariffs may not be optimal but it doesn't really matter 2/n
4) The only way China will materially changes its policies are via enduring significant pain/losses. This is why I say sure TPP, WTO, and allies are great but have no impact on changing China policy as none materially inflict losses on China. (Like Germany is going to join 3/n
US economic sanctioning of China on anything 😂😂😂). 5) This is why tariffs and the targeted decoupling will inflict significant losses on China and likely why the Trump administration is pursuing them and why China is actually rather concerned about that goal 4/n
6) Fundamentally both Xi regime and Trump administration see this not as a minor skirmish but a major fundamental systemic conflict that will chart the direction of history for years to come. It is difficult to understand why people view this as just a trade dispute 5/n
The question at the end of the day comes down to: is it important to challenge Chinese rules of the game and is it worth undertaking such a challenge and are the methods used appropriate for the nature of the challenge. Given the above points, pretty clear it is. Done
