1/n
How has India's electricity demand fared in November?
It's one month since the Indian summer monsoon withdrew, so we can gather further evidence as to the hypothesis that demand decline was due to exceptional monsoon.
How has India's electricity demand fared in November?
It's one month since the Indian summer monsoon withdrew, so we can gather further evidence as to the hypothesis that demand decline was due to exceptional monsoon.
2/n
Bottom line is that we see demand decline of 5.9% in aggregate for the month of November 2019 versus November 2018.
Decline was evenly spread between Northern, Western and Southern Region.
Bottom line is that we see demand decline of 5.9% in aggregate for the month of November 2019 versus November 2018.
Decline was evenly spread between Northern, Western and Southern Region.
3/n
The monsoon was not excess all around the country, with most districts in North recording normal or deficient monsoon rainfall. Thus, the fact that demand decline is being seen all around the country puts into question the narrative that this is driven by excess monsoon.
The monsoon was not excess all around the country, with most districts in North recording normal or deficient monsoon rainfall. Thus, the fact that demand decline is being seen all around the country puts into question the narrative that this is driven by excess monsoon.
4/n
The demand deficit since end July is 42 TWh, assuming a normal annual growth of 4%.
Annual agricultural demand is about 190 TWh.
The demand deficit since end July is 42 TWh, assuming a normal annual growth of 4%.
Annual agricultural demand is about 190 TWh.
5/n
So if all the demand decline is due to impact of monsoon on agricultural pumping, this would imply that about 1/4 of annualised agricultural demand has been foregone in the last 3 months.
This seems too much, a priori.
So if all the demand decline is due to impact of monsoon on agricultural pumping, this would imply that about 1/4 of annualised agricultural demand has been foregone in the last 3 months.
This seems too much, a priori.
6/n
On the supply side, coal has continued to suffer. After surging in summer 2019 compared to summer 2018, coal generation has collapsed relative to the previous year, and has been down at times >20% compared to the previous period👇.
On the supply side, coal has continued to suffer. After surging in summer 2019 compared to summer 2018, coal generation has collapsed relative to the previous year, and has been down at times >20% compared to the previous period👇.
7/n
As seen from 👆 RE growth has also been subdued in 2019 versus 2018 in the period July - October.
Hydro output was up a lot relative to last year in the summer months and October.
As seen from 👆 RE growth has also been subdued in 2019 versus 2018 in the period July - October.
Hydro output was up a lot relative to last year in the summer months and October.
8/n
Given that wind and rainfall are pretty correlated, it's very odd that hydro would be so up in October and renewables flat.
Is this evidence of curtailment? This is something that needs to be investigated.
Given that wind and rainfall are pretty correlated, it's very odd that hydro would be so up in October and renewables flat.
Is this evidence of curtailment? This is something that needs to be investigated.
9/n
In cumulative terms, all zero carbon sources are up, in particular RE and hydro. Coal and gas are down, coal by 2% and gas by 4%.
So we have a real chance of seeing stagnant / declining emissions from the power sector in 2019.
Sure, this is more due to demand compression.
In cumulative terms, all zero carbon sources are up, in particular RE and hydro. Coal and gas are down, coal by 2% and gas by 4%.
So we have a real chance of seeing stagnant / declining emissions from the power sector in 2019.
Sure, this is more due to demand compression.
10/n
My takeaways:
1. We have to start discounting the monsoon hypothesis, and adding more weight to the economic slowdown hypothesis to explain demand decline.
2. Power sector emissions are likely to be close to flat this year.
3. This is not evidence of decarbonization.
My takeaways:
1. We have to start discounting the monsoon hypothesis, and adding more weight to the economic slowdown hypothesis to explain demand decline.
2. Power sector emissions are likely to be close to flat this year.
3. This is not evidence of decarbonization.
