Thread by @UKandEU

Ed Fieldhouse introduces our first panel, discussing what unprecedented level of electoral volatility means for next week’s election with @ranvir01, @jon_mellon and @caprosser #VotersAndBrexit

Why have elections become more difficult to predict in the past? About a third of all voters switch how they vote between 2015 and 2017.

This means electoral shocks are more likely to happen. #VotersAndBrexit

Half the current volatility is explained by two factors: people identifying with parties less, and a rise in smaller parties.

The rest is explained by electoral shocks: big, salient events that cut through and effect the way people think about party politics.

#VotersAndBrexit

Five recent ‘electoral shocks’ that Prof Ed Fieldhouse says have shifted the way voters view party politics

What does a volatile electorate mean for 2019? Brexit is continuing to ripple through the electorate. And, because people are willing to switch parties, the campaign matters.

#VotersAndBrexit

What does electoral volatility look like so far? This slide shows the current shifts: how people voted in 2017, and how these sale people say they would vote in early November.

We are on course for high levels of volatility and vote switching.

#VotersAndBrexit

The decline in party identification: 1960s to 2017

What will the ‘don’t knows’ do? Last time, they (mostly) returned to their previous parties. What happens this time is crucial.

Key slide from @BESResearch: the percentage of voters that have switched who they will vote for during the campaign so far.

Historically high levels of volatility - and significant scope for further shifts in the next week. #VotersAndBrexit

New @BESResearch data: Leave-identifying Labour voters are moving to the Conservatives, but Labour are not picking up support from Remain-identifying Conservatives (though lots are moving to the Lib Dems).

Culture not economics is the key driver of vote choice and change between the two main parties in this election. #VotersAndBrexit

Is there a shy Tory effect? @jon_mellon says there’s some evidence for it, and but it can often be over-estimated as a phenomenon.

.@ranvir01 asks: what does the spike in registrations mean for the election? Ed Fieldhouse suggests this may be due in part to young voters falling off the register between elections.