MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 06Dec19 wk49
1/n
• Global M.PMI rebound
• NFP NFP NFP NFP
• OPEC to cut output ?
• Creditspreads tighter
• Canada UE rate jumps
• NZD & GBP broke out
• oh, yeah, China trade deal
• Messiah Greta arrived safely
1/n
• Global M.PMI rebound
• NFP NFP NFP NFP
• OPEC to cut output ?
• Creditspreads tighter
• Canada UE rate jumps
• NZD & GBP broke out
• oh, yeah, China trade deal
• Messiah Greta arrived safely
2/n Global markets Momentum / Trend / Exhaustion scores wk49
• bunch of new 52wk highs in some stock markets / sectors
• credit swap indices remain very supportive
• "club med" South European bond yields going wider, hmm...hello ECB?
• Coffee anyone ?
• bunch of new 52wk highs in some stock markets / sectors
• credit swap indices remain very supportive
• "club med" South European bond yields going wider, hmm...hello ECB?
• Coffee anyone ?
3/n Global Markets YTD update wk49
4/n Yield scoreboard wk49
• no central bank rate changes in Australia, Poland, Canada (??), India
• Italy 10Y +11bp ...
• Canada curve remains inverted while yields moved up
• no central bank rate changes in Australia, Poland, Canada (??), India
• Italy 10Y +11bp ...
• Canada curve remains inverted while yields moved up
5/n CDX & ITRAXX indices tighter this week again, but CDX NA IG made new 52wk new lows (weekly basis)
6/n CDX Y/Y vs SPX Y/Y ...
7/n big picture / technical trends: NYSE new high / new lows and Advanced/Decline scores ... FYI
8/n SPX seasonal pattern: 2019 is 2x the 10y avg
9/n VIX seasonal pattern : 2019 started historically elevated due to Q4 2018 sell-off after the 9th FED hike and against the odds santa rally. Until recently historically submerged. FED put + China trade deal hope
10/n speaking of VIX, yes, everyone is aware of the gigantic short position according to CFTC COT report. Apparently ETN longs at ATH don't show up here and other parameters.
However, complacency will sort itself out within 1-3months with a spike small or large.
However, complacency will sort itself out within 1-3months with a spike small or large.
11/n #NFPguesses was text book example why it's a white board wager on each floor once a month.
super strong with higher revision after GM strike. +266k ! wow.
That was a heck of an ALGO-party Friday, stocks +1%, VIX down, Gold -1.3%, US5Y +8bp, 10_30Y +7bp b4 settling
super strong with higher revision after GM strike. +266k ! wow.
That was a heck of an ALGO-party Friday, stocks +1%, VIX down, Gold -1.3%, US5Y +8bp, 10_30Y +7bp b4 settling
12/n and with the mega NFP data, unemployment rate was also better. coming back to 3.5%, clearly not rolling over.
UE rate (inv scale) vs lagging JOLTS , those in context, no clear sign in this long stretched biz cycle.
UE rate (inv scale) vs lagging JOLTS , those in context, no clear sign in this long stretched biz cycle.
13/n while US UE rate back to low 3.5%, Canada UE rate actually jumped to 5.9%. ugh.
With higher UE rate and inverted yield curve, some could expect BoC to cut, they didn't. It's on par with FED.
Yld diff momentum never reflected in CADUSD. new normal cycle I guess.
With higher UE rate and inverted yield curve, some could expect BoC to cut, they didn't. It's on par with FED.
Yld diff momentum never reflected in CADUSD. new normal cycle I guess.
14/n a few dots easier to connect :
15/n GOLD , after the hype still in consolidation , and in line with 5Y5Y inflation (inv scale and this time frame) while implied vol peaked with the hype and since collapsed.
16/n SILVER is now down -16% since that hype and exhaustion, also peak and collapse vola.
CNBC and BBG very often good indicators to gauge hype.
CNBC and BBG very often good indicators to gauge hype.
17/n KIWI had a technical breakout
18/n so did CABLE
the more seats Conservatives get at next week #GE2019 , the higher the chance of 1.40
although, call IV drifting lower while put IV stays, hence RR coming off. But for that there are real gurus out there, not me in particular
the more seats Conservatives get at next week #GE2019 , the higher the chance of 1.40
although, call IV drifting lower while put IV stays, hence RR coming off. But for that there are real gurus out there, not me in particular
19/n USDTRY never materialised what 10Y bond yields, nor IV could have suggested. stuck in a range.
20/n HK turmoil directly translates into ever falling business confidence.
M.PMI falling into the abyss,now at 38.5, ~11Y low,massive diverging from China PMI.
HK HSI underperforming global stocks on a relative basis correlation, could be worse though
M.PMI falling into the abyss,now at 38.5, ~11Y low,massive diverging from China PMI.
HK HSI underperforming global stocks on a relative basis correlation, could be worse though
21/n this supposed to be a joke, take it or leave it, market doesnt work like this and it's also distorted by Q4 2018 sell-off. yet funny af.
22/n so, last week, Crude tanked 5% on US ATH output and falling demand.
this week, Crude rallied on less stocks, but especially after Saudi + Russki favour an OPEC output cut.
Algo-parties.
this week, Crude rallied on less stocks, but especially after Saudi + Russki favour an OPEC output cut.
Algo-parties.
23/n next week
• another super weak JP machine tool orders which nobody cares
• French NFP, what ?
• Germany ZEW (rebounding, they are analysts)
• Island rate decision (joke)
• ok, FED too (unch)
• CBRT -150bp, USDTRY doesn't care
• ECB 1st Lagarde presser
• #GE2019
• another super weak JP machine tool orders which nobody cares
• French NFP, what ?
• Germany ZEW (rebounding, they are analysts)
• Island rate decision (joke)
• ok, FED too (unch)
• CBRT -150bp, USDTRY doesn't care
• ECB 1st Lagarde presser
• #GE2019
24/end who is reading this ? lolz
anyways, happy no-trade-and-glued-on-screens-unless-you-trade-bitcoin-24-7-weekend
anyways, happy no-trade-and-glued-on-screens-unless-you-trade-bitcoin-24-7-weekend
@threadreaderapp unroll aber zacki zacki ;-) (joke) thx to your algo. does the algo read this too ? algo on algo ?
