The most surprising news in a long time, in an era of shocking news.
Suleimani wasn't just visible and public in his movements. He was flamboyantly, deliberately so, appearing on social media on front lines in Syria & Iraq & visiting Moscow.
nytimes.com/2020/01/02/wor…
nytimes.com/2020/01/02/wor…
The region will be bracing for unpredictable consequences, retaliation, possible escalation, at a time when political turmoil is already on an uptick region-wide. Could affect Lebanon, Israel, the Gulf, and of course Iraq.
US policy in region has been all over the map in recent years. Pentagon statement specified this was "on President's orders": a telling specificity since at times different govt agencies/branches have seemed to be running different policies.
Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen after surprise US strike on Suleimani, doesn't. This is truly uncharted.
A few quick thoughts. First on US policy: the AUMF, authorizing post-9/11 war vs AQ/Taliban, has been stretched by each president to cover any groups deemed terrorist. Will this be the domestic legal justification they cite?
Another legal q: Unconfirmed, some Iraqi media say US Marines arrested - in Baghdad - 2 powerful Iraqis w/Iran ties: Hadi al-Ameri, MP & head of Badr Brigades, & Qais Khazali, another militia leader. In nominally allied, sovereign Iraq? It's not 2003...
Presidential ad-libbing is of course another wildcard in the situation:
Has Trump gamed out next steps after possible responses? Planned for protecting US forces, civilians, interests, allies, partners? Not to overblow this - Iran must threaten, but also will prob be cautious. But this throws huge chaos stone. How prepared is USG for ripples?
Now, of all times, Trump considering pardon for Blackwater contractor convicted in massacre of 17 Iraqi civilians in Nisoor traffic circle in Baghdad 2007?
Reax from ppl of region: Lots of fear re: possible repercussions. Other reax divided: Some outrage. Some joy. Some remind that, even if strike was illegal/poor strategy, Suleimani helped Assad crush Syrian uprising w/brutal tactics vs civilians.
More on dizzying alliances/enmities: While avoiding directly working on ground w/Suleimani's militias, in the battle vs ISIS in Iraq, US in essence gave them air support/ was arms-length tactical ally. De facto coordinated w/him thru Iraqi officials. Until now, that is.
A long-haul story. But 2 more thoughts for now: 1) This is bigger than hitting ISIS's Baghdadi, or striking a deterrent blow against an adversary. When was last time US directly, openly assassinated a senior official of a state?
2) What will the coming rounds mean for people's movements in Iraq and Lebanon? Nonsectarian, largely peaceful pushes for better governance that have brought measures of hope & unity to these fragile countries & resilient people. They risk being disrupted/eclipsed.
Follow @nytimes colleagues' coverage here nytimes.com/2020/01/02/wor… & here nytimes.com/2020/01/02/wor… & in coming days.
@nytimes You'll see more from @farnazfassihi our deeply sourced Iran reporter, & in the region @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt and others, who are in for a busy morning.
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt This look at Suleimani’s life now updated by @tarangoNYT, longtime Baghdad buro chief; @ronenbergman, expert on Israel security forces; & Beirut buro chief @NYTBen: nytimes.com/2020/01/03/obi…
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Another Syrian reaction. I’m seeing/hearing many versions of this sentiment:
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Crossing t’s, dotting i’s
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Iraqis reiterating the concern mentioned above: Will US strike killing Suleimani & aftereffects disrupt their movement for better governance, hard-won & stayi g peaceful despite killing of protesters?
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Meanwhile, the Mooch weighs in!
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman And NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio with the local angle:
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Thread from member of Congress who is also former CIA analyst in Iraq & Pentagon official under both parties:
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman Interesting, nuanced thread from the smart @RymMomtaz, on "escalation dominance":
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz And, from the eminence grise of Iran analysts, Gary Sick, who was a diplomat there in 1979:
And now, back to the environment for the rest of the day, where things are also perfectly calm....
And now, back to the environment for the rest of the day, where things are also perfectly calm....
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz OK, just had to add this last thing & recommend @JaneLytv's threads on inauthentic web activity around the story:
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz @JaneLytv Intentionally targeting cultural heritage sites is a war crime.
(& unrelated to military goals or anything Iran's been accused of doing to US. Iran/Assad/Russia alliance destroyed Syrian cultural sites, as did ISIS, which doesn't mean others should.)
(& unrelated to military goals or anything Iran's been accused of doing to US. Iran/Assad/Russia alliance destroyed Syrian cultural sites, as did ISIS, which doesn't mean others should.)
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz @JaneLytv More on previous tweet from former a White House national security official:
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz @JaneLytv FWIW, he may think "the Iranian culture" is Islam. Not that that changes anything.
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz @JaneLytv thread on supposed intelligence basis for these moves
@nytimes @farnazfassihi @NYTBen @VivianHYee @hwaida_saad @Alissanyt @tarangoNYT @ronenbergman @RymMomtaz @JaneLytv Thread on Iranian (Persian) cultural sites
