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See my new @WashInstitute piece with Assaf Orion of @INSSIsrael, a retired IDF strategic planner & valued @WashInstitute fellow. The piece puts forward a remarkably specific "what if?" -- What if Israel knew there were Iranian ballistic missiles in Iraq? washin.st/2LTfVSb
Let's be more specific: what if Israel (and the US) knew that there were Iranian short-range ballistic missiles at PMF bases in Ashraf, Suwayrah, Speicher, Jurf as-Sakr, and maybe further afield, like Rezaza or Tharthar or Baaj?
Track record from Lebanon, Yemen, Hamas, Syria suggests that once Iran supplies basic missile expertise & materiel, it then vertically proliferates with longer-range, more accuracy. Best to check this dynamic b4 it gets rolling faster in Iraq.
I would be very interested to learn more about Asaib Ahl al-Haq's long-range tactical rocket and other missile forces, or their sheltering of Iranian missile forces. AAH was designed explicitly to be the Iraqi Hezbollah-equivalent, and I should have included them in this pieice.
The PMF complexes in Baaj district are worth watching closely also. Nice spot for long-range tactical rocketry for striking US forces in eastern Syria. Couple of airstrip bases there too. Large facilities with some hardened shelters. Grateful to the tipper on that front.
