The most important development in international politics in the last decade, in the 2010s: the big autocratic powers, Russia and China, enter into competition with liberal democracies. A thread. /1
Autocratic elites in Russia and China have survived the revolutions of 1989. They have survived the subsequent global pressure to democratize (end of history). They have ducked and covered, biding their time, hoping that the storm may pass. /2
And they were lucky — they found a new lifeline: as partners of a West convinced that with economic integration and modernization, the transformation towards liberal order (democracy, market economy, international cooperation) will be inevitable. /3
In the 2010s, these elites further stabilized their domestic rule and started to push back against liberal order, in an increasingly bold manner — operation Make the world safe for autocracy. /4
This operation includes, among other things: to limit access of their population to liberal ideas; to use disinformation and propaganda in the West to undermine and weaken liberal ideas and convictions; /5
to use military pressure and power to force neighboring countries into submission; to demonstrate the ability to keep dictators in power against pressure to democratize. /6
In the interest of this operation, Russia and China — natural geopolitical rivals in Eurasia — have agreed to a (fragile and temporary) alliance. /7
There are three areas they target:
-> weaker states "in between", which they try to bring under their control;
-> wealthy Europe, where both play "divide and rule", especially divide from the US;
-> the US, robust center of liberal ideas (democracy and market economy) /8
-> weaker states "in between", which they try to bring under their control;
-> wealthy Europe, where both play "divide and rule", especially divide from the US;
-> the US, robust center of liberal ideas (democracy and market economy) /8
The west is caught by surprise. Some refuse to see the challenge, some have been corrupted. The willingness to push back is often weak. There is a widespread tendency to fall for the narratives spread by China and Russia. Many fear retaliation. /9
Yet at the same time, the corrosion of autocracy continues. Smaller countries don't want to be vassals. The desire for a decent state remains strong. People want freedom and are ready to fight. They don't want to be exploited, live in permanent fear, ruled by few oligarchs. /10
That forces the autocratic elites to double down on their fight against the democratic contagion — which they fear more than anything else. Nervous, they increase domestic repression and act increasingly aggressive abroad. Which leads to more resistance, at home and abroad. /11
To be continued in the 2020s. /12
