Putin's in a hurry. The Russian Presidential Administration delivered to the Duma today 29 pages of proposed constitutional reforms. (What that 75-person constitutional convention was for, I'll let you figure out on your own.) TL;DR: a whimper, not a bang.
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In a nutshell, the proposal looks less significant than it was made out to be (don't say I didn't warn you). Yes, some powers (esp to appoint ministers) shift more firmly to the PM, with greater accountability to the Duma. Yes, the president can't serve more than two terms.
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But the president retains significant powers, including to nominate and dismiss the prime minister, and to oversee state policy broadly.
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The role of the State Council remains quite nebulous. The draft says it is meant not only to coordinate policymaking and implementation at all levels, but also to determine policymaking priorities (the 'unified system of public power' I wrote about in a previous thread).
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And the State Council (Госсовет) will (evidently) be subordinate to the President, who convenes it (but doesn't necessarily chair it).
The Federation Council (upper house of parliament) remains beholden to regional gov'ts, who remain beholden to the president.
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The Federation Council (upper house of parliament) remains beholden to regional gov'ts, who remain beholden to the president.
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In the end, then, we're left with a strong president, a somewhat more autonomous PM, a slightly more powerful Duma and a mysterious State Council. In other words, potentially very little change at all.
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Or potentially quite a lot of change. If the president and the Duma are at odds, power could flow to the PM in ways it does not now. This revision would seem to allow for French-style 'cohabitation'. But I'm struggling to imagine that actually happening in Putin's lifetime.
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So for the time being, at least, I'm sticking with my initial analysis: this is about manufacturing maneuverability and keeping options open.
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This reform could allow for a re-formalization of power and the reinvigoration of political institutions. Or it could allow informal power to shift to a new locus - maybe the PM, maybe the State Council (but almost certainly not the Duma).
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For the foreseeable future, expect mixed messages on all fronts: Maybe Putin will chair the Gossovet, maybe he'll be PM, maybe he'll just go. (I doubt he'll run United Russia.)
People will be invited to place bets on any and all options - and to lose.
That's the point.
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People will be invited to place bets on any and all options - and to lose.
That's the point.
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