This is good advice. Clinton lost an Electoral College race in a jump-ball election: ie a COMPARISON battle w/ a hardcore R base vs a fractured Dem base. A re-elect should be a REFERENDUM on the incumbent + 2 hardcore bases. It should be about keeping the president or not.
Trump targeted Biden & baits Bernie because he wants to re-create 2016: a comparison race + fractured Dems. Incumbents mostly win because they are a known quantity & voters tend to keep them if they can render the replacement unacceptable (switfboated Kerry or 47 percent Romney).
IOW any incumbent-from mayor to president-should be treated as a frontrunner. Incumbents are hard to beat barring some fatal misstep like Bush I raising taxes (helped the economy but broke a major promise) or maybe impeachment? Polls are fine but dont assume winning will be easy.
Last point: Trump's base has not grown since '16 but they are amped & not going to leave him. The Dems are likely to be dragging a coalition w/ hard feelings over the line again. Q is who can consolidate the multiracial base, add new registrants & not outweigh Trump as the story.
