- Assume all evacuated were tested, and are a random sample
- Then true infection rate of Wuhan was around 1%
- Hubei is ~58.5M ppl, contains Wuhan
- If Hubei rate is 0.5-1%, then 290k-585k total cases
- JHU on Hubei: 13.5k confirmed cases
- So total cases are 20-40X confirmed?
- Then true infection rate of Wuhan was around 1%
- Hubei is ~58.5M ppl, contains Wuhan
- If Hubei rate is 0.5-1%, then 290k-585k total cases
- JHU on Hubei: 13.5k confirmed cases
- So total cases are 20-40X confirmed?
Some notes:
1) This is guesstimation right now
2) Underreporting not always due to hiding info. Can be due to self-quarantine, lack of kits, asymptomatics
3) Caijing reports 80/5 ratio of total to hospitalized. This independently suggests ratio of 16X.
translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
1) This is guesstimation right now
2) Underreporting not always due to hiding info. Can be due to self-quarantine, lack of kits, asymptomatics
3) Caijing reports 80/5 ratio of total to hospitalized. This independently suggests ratio of 16X.
translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
It's basically a missing data problem. We know that the number of unreported cases is higher than the number of confirmed. But how much higher and by what factor?
@DoveyWan's approach is good because four different samples converge on a ~1% Wuhan infection rate (a few days ago)
@DoveyWan's approach is good because four different samples converge on a ~1% Wuhan infection rate (a few days ago)
