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- Assume all evacuated were tested, and are a random sample
- Then true infection rate of Wuhan was around 1%
- Hubei is ~58.5M ppl, contains Wuhan
- If Hubei rate is 0.5-1%, then 290k-585k total cases
- JHU on Hubei: 13.5k confirmed cases
- So total cases are 20-40X confirmed?
Some notes:

1) This is guesstimation right now

2) Underreporting not always due to hiding info. Can be due to self-quarantine, lack of kits, asymptomatics

3) Caijing reports 80/5 ratio of total to hospitalized. This independently suggests ratio of 16X.
translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
It's basically a missing data problem. We know that the number of unreported cases is higher than the number of confirmed. But how much higher and by what factor?

@DoveyWan's approach is good because four different samples converge on a ~1% Wuhan infection rate (a few days ago)
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Hands-free menus being rolled out on flights.
This menu is obviously improvised today, but the virus will catalyze a hygiene 2.0 movement across Asia at a minimum.

Every affordance touched by multiple people (menus, doorknobs, elevators, faucets) will get rethought with gesture & voice.

Touchscreens will be personal only.
See this thread:
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Good post that calls the official Chinese numbers into question, comparing them to Vietnam-era body counts.

Best evidence: a curve fit several days ago did indeed closely predict reported deaths.

Rest-of-world numbers at JHU are likely more reliable.
epsilontheory.com/body-count/
You could do a formal statistical test, but well-ascertained organic data would look like scatter around a sigmoid, as @EpsilonTheory notes.

Qualitative reports from on the ground as well as the scale of quarantine suggest significant underreporting.
My general belief is the official Chinese numbers are loose lower bounds. I don’t think they would *overstate* the crisis.

What about rest of world numbers? Well, they have increased >110X in 20 days, from 4 to 449.
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Read 9 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
Thesis I’m hearing: did chronic air pollution in China immunocompromise lungs and make it easier for the virus?

Wuhan doesn’t appear to have the *worst* air pollution. It’s normally #93 in China, #146 in world.

But maybe it doesn’t need to be the worst, just bad.
This is just a thesis, and would require careful epidemiological investigation.

One analysis might be to plot infection severity vs time spent in a city with high air pollution. Like being a smoker.

Or you might need to get more granular — the specific chemicals could matter.
I’m reminded also of the tests for body burden & toxic load.

While personal genomics will show you your genome, and wearables will show you things like heart rate, these tests show what chemicals you have been exposed to.

One example:
silentspring.org/detoxmeactionk…
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