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Brave Chinese doctor:

- raised alarm about virus on Dec 30
- accused of rumor-mongering by police
- forced to sign statement acknowledging his "misdemeanor"
- contracted virus while treating patients
- died from the virus!

The dumbest people on Twitter:

- It's just the flu
Li Wenliang risked his freedom to get out the message and lost his life treating patients. We should name an award after him. And we should probably listen to him.

More here:
cnn.com/2020/02/06/asi…
While I don't believe this till I see him wave, some saying he isn't dead yet, they are only trying to "resuscitate" him.

At minimum: healthy 34 yr old tried to get message out, was brought to death's door by virus.

Should listen to Chinese Paul Revere.
scmp.com/news/china/soc…
The Li Wenliang Prize for Decentralized Medicine: when the state fails & need to protect your own health.

The Chinese state is not a monolith. And no option right now but to hope they do a good job with instant hospitals, etc.

Long term though, need decentralized medicine.
Unfortunately, Li Wenliang's death is now confirmed.

> Wuhan Central Hospital initially denied reports he was dead, saying he was in “critical condition”, before finally confirming he had passed away
scmp.com/news/china/soc…
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
At-home diagnosis via drone. Thermal imaging tells you (and the state) whether you have a fever.

Torn on stuff like this. Remote diagnosis allows scalable testing of many ppl & saves healthcare workers from getting sick. And tech is amazing.

But, of course, very Terminator-ish.
With some combination of drones and (autonomous?) trucks, China might be able to do a lot of medical imaging outside the hospital.

Alliance says they have mobile MRI, CT, PET scanners and have done 1 million+ scans.
alliancehealthcareservices-us.com/radiology/imag…
Toshiba also has a mobile CT scanner on a truck:
Read 5 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
In 2009, it was unlikely that BTC would cross $100k. But conditional on BTC having *already crossed* $10k, it was more likely to cross $100k.

On Dec 1, 2019 it was unlikely the virus would cross 100k cases. But having *accelerated* past 10k, it was more likely to cross 100k.
Of course, the dynamics of prices & cases are different, but both are often modeled as stochastic processes: prices as GBMs, epidemics as SEIR[S].

At the beginning the parameters of these stochastic processes are unknown. But as data comes in, parameter estimates update.
Now, because we can't run these experiments over again, the utility of these models is more limited than (eg) physics.

That is, there's only one multi-year rise of Bitcoin, only one #covid2019 epidemic (thankfully!). But you can do as many inclined plane experiments as you want.
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
New preprint with authors from Chinese CDC estimates ~3.06% overall case fatality rate from 4000+ patients.

Estimates an R0 of 3.77, which is fairly high.

Also states that ~23% of patients had severe cases. Many of those are at risk for hospitalization.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I didn’t see the exact diagnostic criteria for a severe case in their writeup. They also noted that there may be many more unreported mild cases.

Would be good to match the precise diagnostic criteria vs other pprs to ensure “severe” refers to same thing.
The death rate doesn’t need to be as high as SARS to be a serious problem. The big issue is the contagiousness.

If it spreads to 30M people then “only” a 3% death rate could mean 1M deaths.

We need to accelerate on the vaccine, every day and week counts.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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IndoPacific News
@IndoPac_Info
#coronavirus

#China censors its own national anthem

People, outraged at what happened to doctor Li Wenliang at #Wuhan Hospital are singing the first line of the national anthem that says "Arise, ye who refuse to be slaves!" as a protest song

This is big
languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=46020
People are outraged at what happened to doctor Li Wenliang at #Wuhan Hospital who called attention to the virus outbreak on December 30-2019, before it became an epidemic. Instead of the government praising him, they sent police to threaten and harass him, to cover the epidemic.
While treating patients, he contacted the disease himself and succumbed to it on February 7, 2020. To add insult to death, the government first denied that he had died, then admitted it and began a propaganda campaign to promote him as a hero.
Read 8 tweets
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War Watch
@war_watch
[THREAD] China Coronavirus Outbreak
A deadly virus is spreading from Asia, affecting hundreds of people and resulting in dozens of deaths, in what may become a gloabal health epidemic. This thread contains news about the outbreak.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus #WarWatch
On Dec 30, 2019, Chinese authorities confirmed cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A team of national experts was sent to carry out detection tests. Patients at a local seafood market were put in quarantine.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus
Liu Youning, a professor of epidemiology and respiratory medicine, told the Global Times that the #coronavirus found in #Wuhan appears to be far less serious than the virus that caused the severe acute respiratory syndrome (#SARS) or the Middle East respiratory syndrome (#MERS).
Read 53 tweets
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
Thread: Gambling ban driving #Chinese nationals away from #Cambodia - Good news from Cambodia for a change bangkokpost.com/world/1746864/…
Tens of thousands of Chinese nationals are reportedly leaving the kingdom following a government ban on online gambling intended to reduce the number of crimes committed by foreigners.
On Aug 18, Prime Minister Hun Sen issued a directive banning all online and arcade gambling in the kingdom in a bid to safeguard security and public order.
Read 9 tweets
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Sneha Koshy
@SnehaMKoshy
Shocking! 34 year old #Woman Civil #Police Officer (WCPO) Saumya dies on the spot after a man sets her on fire in broad daylight light in #Kerala's Mavelikara. More details awaited. Very disturbing . @ndtv
The accused is a #Kerala Civil #Police Officer himself . The woman cop, leaves behind three children. Reason for the attack is said to have been conflict over personal dealings.
The woman civil police officer was charred to death in broad daylight light. She leaves behind three minor children. The accused , a Civil Police officer himself , is admitted with 50% burns. #Kerala . @ndtv
Read 4 tweets
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💖💄 Aoife ♿💜
@Aoiferocksitout
#Disability twitter, #medtwitter , let us have a discussion about patients discussing #MedicalTrauma on here. A Thread:
#chronicillness #ChronicPain #Chroniclife #MedTraumaChat #Spoonie
2) Last night, a fellow advocate posted a very handy guide for HCPs & patients abt treating patients who are trauma survivors: Trauma Informed Care - Disclosures and Care Transitions healthasahumanright.wordpress.com/2018/08/23/tra… #medtwitter #Disability #chronicillness #medtraumachat #spoonie
3) It's a good resource for both #patients & HCPs, please read it if you have a moment.
This led to a helpful discussion about #MedicalTrauma between an HPC and the person who wrote this guide, who has had experiences with this,
#Disability #medtwitter #chronicillness #Spoonie
Read 13 tweets

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