Evidence grows that we may need a new narrative on China soon, at least one among several. In the Cold War we had faith that character of US system was superior in long-run to autocratic / state-controlled. China differs from USSR, but elements of the same theory apply 1/6
Fascinating new essay on how China will have difficulty competing in long-run without democratic transition. Just because engagement didn't produce liberalization (yet) doesn't mean these dynamics aren't still at work 2/6
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china… via @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china… via @ForeignAffairs
Coronavirus--following on heels of Hong Kong debacle--is an example of ways in which autocratic system can face legitimacy crisis. This crisis might be gone in 6 months, but the ingredients of credibility challenge are there 3/6
ft.com/content/6f7fdb… via @financialtimes
ft.com/content/6f7fdb… via @financialtimes
And other potential crises lurk in the wings: Slowing growth, aging, financial system, housing bubble, debt, surprise scenarios like the virus. The CCP may manage some well, but two or three big, poorly-managed crises would continue to chip away at legitimacy 4/6
Meantime abroad, reaction remains too still weak and inconsistent, but China's overreaching is sparking pushback. Limited by economic incentives and China threats, but the reaction is ruining the PRC's ability to claim any mantle as a truly legitimate leader of a system 5/6
Rather than linear rise + power transition, an alternative narrative would focus on the unsustainable trajectory of the current autocratic/state capitalist model + inevitability of change. US strategy for that would differ in important ways from permanent-rise narrative 6/6
