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Gita Gopinath + Kristalina Georgieva combo with promises of a new, credibly reformed IMF that doesnt leave countries to the mercy of the global financial cycle ft.com/content/b53468…
IMF to switch from 'exchange rate flexibility will sort it' to Integrated Policy Framework: 'you need a combination of monetary policy, macroprudential policy, exchange rate interventions and capital flow measures' to stabilise.
on the plus side, this is a sign that @helene_rey dilemma (mon. policy autonomy vs capital mobility) now common wisdom in policy circles, despite some resistance
@helene_rey the IPF updates IMF's institutional view on capital flows, that allowed capital controls as last resort measure, after other macro policies 'exhausted'
@helene_rey that 'macro first' approach to capital controls, I argued a while ago, is highly problematic because it ignores macro-financial dynamics tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
@helene_rey the IPF takes macro-finance seriously: policy mix depends on country characteristics, including depth of fx markets and capital markets kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/…
@helene_rey (incidentally if guided by this approach, Lagarde would have pushed Argentina under Macri to impose capital controls before lending it a single dollar)
@helene_rey IPF details still to be ironed out, specifying interactions between policy tools, and more important for IMF, how (critical new) ideas in the Research department travel to (still monetarist) country programs.
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