Worth noting, the sample in WI looks a little odd. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the sample by 6 percentage points even though registration in the state is about even.
But even correcting for that, the race looks entirely winnable for Trump. Democrats need to step up there.
But even correcting for that, the race looks entirely winnable for Trump. Democrats need to step up there.
What makes WI so interesting in 2020 is, both parties have big pools of natural voters who didn't turn out in 2016.
For Ds, they did well in Dane but their turnout in MKE was awful.
For Rs, their rural turnout was ok but not maxed, and lots of ppl in WOW voted third party.
For Ds, they did well in Dane but their turnout in MKE was awful.
For Rs, their rural turnout was ok but not maxed, and lots of ppl in WOW voted third party.
So it's not crazy to imagine scenarios where:
A) Rs boost rural turnout and do better with WOW voters, while Ds still sag in MKE, and Trump wins by 5 points, or
B) Ds kill it in MKE and Dane, Trump's turnout stays flat and Dems win by 5 points.
Both are possible!
A) Rs boost rural turnout and do better with WOW voters, while Ds still sag in MKE, and Trump wins by 5 points, or
B) Ds kill it in MKE and Dane, Trump's turnout stays flat and Dems win by 5 points.
Both are possible!
My personal prediction, though, is that both parties are going to maximize engagement, turnout for everyone is going to be through the roof, and Wisconsin is going to be *extremely* close.
