Armed confrontations reported between forces recently deployed by the Federal Government of #Somalia and local forces led by security minister of #Jubbaland, who recovered the areas from Shebab after years of bloody war, in which he was accused of committing war crimes.
In the clip below, the sound of fire exchanges can be heard. The narrator reports of mortar landing on civilian homes in parts of Balad-Hawo, a border town, in #Somalia. The fighting subsides at the end of the narration, suggesting lull in the fighting.
This footage, if valid, reports damages on Somtel, Somali telecom. This comes after Kenya airfare destroying Hormud, another Somali telecom; the latter can constitute a war crime, civilian target
targethttps://www.facebook.com/farhanabdiwali.xassan.5/videos/548967032641804/?t=2
targethttps://www.facebook.com/farhanabdiwali.xassan.5/videos/548967032641804/?t=2
The above footage also shows #Somalia’s federal army and police deployed in Gedo having the upper hand, and still holding Jubbaland dervishes in Border point 1 areas, close to the Kenya border, suggesting the Jubbaland dervishes did not derive SNA out of the city.
Number of factors are working against Jubbaland dervishes. The general propensity of Marehanto support Strong clansman leader, President Farmajo, against an ally of Jubbaland President. Clan pride may work against them, forcing many civilians and others to support FGS. #Gedo
The combination of clan and patriotic sentiment may motivate the public to support the federal army and police against Jubbaland dervishes. As such, Jubbaland may just remain for a while a force that exists simply because Kenya supports them. FGS may use this advantage.
This analysis suggests FGS may not be defeated in Gedo. However, if #Kenya defense force supports them, then they may have a chance . The proper strategy is to withdraw Jubbaland forces from Gedo and defend other provinces of #Jubbaland, where clan support for Farmajo is missing
FGS may lose its international support and feel their pressure as a result of diverting human and military resources from fighting Shebab to fighting those who fought and defeated Shebab, further cementing this thesis FGS does not see Shebab as a priority security project. #Gedo
FGS is putting a lot of energy in Gedo, and Jubbaland in general, to stoke patriotism, justify its unnecessary deployment of troops in Gedo. The plan will work when Kenya responds and supports Jubbaland dervishes who may not be supported in Gedo simply due to clan reasons. #Gedo
The best course of action is to stop the war, re-deploy Janan Jubbaland dervishes to lower Jubba, to save the civilians in both parts of the border, and to focus resources on the real opponent of Somali people now, Shebab. Re- start dialogue on resolving outstanding issues. #Gedo
An elder in BaladHawo told BBC Somali service, that he saw mortar landing on civilian house, I kept going he said. He said opposing army, #Jubbaland dervishes, are behind Kenya’s border with #Somalia, evidence of #Kenya intervention, this writer notes
bbc.com/somali/bbc_som…
bbc.com/somali/bbc_som…
FGS appears to have won and this was expected, given the analysis given above. Here a leading paper in Kenya reports defeated Jubbaland militias being escorted into Kenya police station, while KDF was guarding the facility. 
@threadreaderapp please “ unroll”
