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Simple spreadsheet & sim pandemic models show how millions of lives might be saved via deliberate exposure, & increased variance in infection rates. Maybe they are not good ideas, but don't tell me they aren't coherent.
overcomingbias.com/2020/03/simple…
If you want to think seriously about policy for a fast escaped pandemic like #COVID19, you have to understand that delaying AVERAGE infection dates has less value than increasing VARIANCE in infection dates.
overcomingbias.com/2020/03/for-fa…
This graph compares US death rates vs days in three cases: baseline (10.9M die), deliberate infection (9.04M die), and increased infection variance (8.65M die):
I should admit that decreasing the average infection rate both delays and spreads out infections. For example, compared to the baseline above (10.9M die), decreasing ave infection rate uniformly by only 5% cuts deaths to 8.49M, saving 2.5M lives.
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