1/ Sanders and Biden are both old white dudes who made their bones representing tiny states. So why is Biden succeeding and Sanders slipping? It's not their policy differences, it's because Biden is better at politics than Sanders.
A thread.
A thread.
2/ First, VT is 94% white; DE only 64%. Biden knows that winning Dem primaries means reaching out to non-white voters. Sanders has never had to do that before, and it shows. In both his presidential campaigns he's proven he's tone-deaf to the concerns of non-white voters.
3/ Second, Biden knows politics is about relationships. He's spent 40 years working with other people, and that's paying off in the form of endorsements & other field-clearing actions. Bernie spent 40 years mostly trying to go it alone, and has mostly been ineffective...
4/ ...in enacting his policies. If Biden wins, the same lesson will apply here. (Also, if Biden becomes president, this may be his undoing. He over-learned the lesson & believes that his personal relationships with GOP pols will overcome partisan polarization. They will not.)
5/ Third, Biden knows that achieving anything in politics happens through parties, not despite them or outside of them. Sanders has spent decades abjuring party politics, and it shows in how he has trouble navigating the dense web of connections that makes up the Dem party.
6/ Additionally, it *might* matter that Biden is a moderate and Sanders is more ideologically extreme, but I'm not sure how much. Most voters aren't ideological, and not that many can even articulate consistent policy preferences. It's probably true that...
7/ there are move moderate voters than progressive in the Democratic primary electorate. But elites can convince voters of things (Zaller). Sanders has had two chances to win the hearts and minds of the Democratic party, and it looks like he's failing for a second time.
8/ The election is far from over & Sanders still has a chance of winning this thing. But his chances are slipping away. if he fails, it won't be because his ideas are inferior. It's because his brand of politics is.
