Thread by @GuntramWolff

Taking up the idea of @SMerler , I compare Hubei, Italy, France and Germany #COVID19 confirmed cases. The four lines look remarkably similar. The scary part of the picture is in next Tweet: Biggest part of problem is ahead, even for Italy.

IF (which is a big if) the three EU countries manage like China to plateau the newly confirmed cases, plateau will be reached in Italy in ~30 days and in Germany and France in around 40 days.

The message is clear: The biggest impact for the EU is still ahead. Even Italy is only seeing the beginning. It is urgent to (a) mobilise hospital facilities, (b) roll out fiscal support for those most affected, (c) prepare macroeconomic support as this will affect confidence.

Of course, this is not an epidemiological study but a simple statistical exercise. A lot will depend on how well EU authorities will be able to reduce the speed of the spreading of the Virus and many other factors that health specialists should advise on.

The first 3 places have around 60 million inhabitants, while I scaled German numbers down by a factor of 6/8 reflecting its larger population size. Day 5 is the day when all 4 countries/regions had ~400 cases and this is how I matched the timing. Italy is now day 14.

Data source: github.com/CSSEGISandData…

More sophisticated analysis to follow. this is only a quick xls work on a Saturday morning.... @Bruegel_org @Tagliapietra_S @sjwrenlewis