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🇩🇪 It confirms that German GDP likely ⬇ in 2Q while proxies pointed to the risk of another ⬇ in 3Q (technical recession).

This scenario would add pressure on #Germany to launch a stimulus package to support growth at both the national and 🇪🇺 level.

🇪🇺 Trichet Sees Next Crisis if #ECB doesn’t get Help - Handelsblatt
handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldp…
🇩🇪 #Germany’s economy needs a fiscal boost - FT
ft.com/content/5ea7db…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY MULLS U-TURN IN FISCAL POLICY, CONSIDERS ISSUANCE OF NEW DEBT TO FINANCE CLIMATE PROTECTION PACKAGE - SENIOR GOV'T OFFICIAL - REUTERS
As I noted (bit.ly/2MamhLV), in order to react to a potential recession, #German officials could open the door to a potential stimulus at both the 🇩🇪 and 🇪🇺 level.

Given the political context, a kind of #greendeal seems to be a good compromise to get max support.
🇩🇪 #Berlin would link and limit any new debt strictly to the climate protection package which Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet is expected to seal next month ❗ - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ger…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY SAYS THERE'S NO DECISION TO GIVE UP BALANCED BUDGET - BBG
*GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN COMMENTS VIA PHONE
🇩🇪 German Association of Chambers of Trade and Industry (DIHK) cuts 2019 export forecast from 1.2% to 0.0% - Reuters

🇩🇪 #Germany to Reveal Size of Recession Risk: Global Economy Week - Bloomberg
*German 2Q GDP will be released on Aug. 14
*Link: bloom.bg/2OLAWiL
🇩🇪 #GERMANY AUG ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -13.5 V -6.5E (lowest since May 2010); EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: -44.1 V -28.0E (lowest since Dec. 2011)
🇩🇪 *GERMAN PARLIAMENT PUBLISHES 2020 BUDGET DRAFT - BBG
#GERMANY 2020 BUDGET DRAFT FORESEES NO NET DEBT INCREASE
*GERMANY TO ISSUE 234B EUROS GROSS DEBT IN 2020, FROM 185B Y/Y
🇩🇪 #Germany | Merkel Puts First Crack in Her Opposition to Fiscal Stimulus - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 German Economy Contracts as #Trade Tensions Take Their Toll - Bloomberg
#GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.1% V -0.1%E
*Link: bloom.bg/2OR2WSe
🇩🇪 #GERMANY 2Q GDP DATA "WAKE-UP CALL, WARNING": ALTMAIER TO BILD - BBG
*RECESSION CAN BE AVOIDED WITH CORRECT MEASURES: ALTMAIER
🇩🇪 #GERMANY CDU LEADER SEES ROOM FOR GOVT ACTION IN ECONOMIC CRISIS - BBG
🇩🇪 #GERMANY READY FOR DEFICIT SPENDING IF RECESSION HITS: SPIEGEL
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz…
🇩🇪 #Germany | #Berlin’s Maddening Aversion to Fiscal Stimulus: A Traders’ Guide - Bloomberg
*The budget debate from Sept. 10❗ may offer further clues as to whether pressure is growing.
*Beyond that, the 3Q GDP number will be key (Nov. 14 ❗)
*Link: bloom.bg/30exUoL
🇩🇪 Here’s How #Germany Could Boost Its Economy, If It Wants to Act - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/30dHOHa
🇩🇪 #Germany's Scholz: Don't expect higher interest rates for years - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb…
🇩🇪 #Germany Says It Could Spend Extra $55 Billion If Crisis Hits - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 #Germany’s central bank warned that Europe’s largest economy could be about to tip into recession, adding to the pressure on policy makers to ramp up support - Bloomberg
🇩🇪 The German government is getting ready to act to shore up Europe’s largest economy, preparing fiscal stimulus measures that could be triggered by a deep recession, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter - Bloomberg
🇩🇪 #Germany Fiscal Stimulus Preparations Echo Crisis-Era Splurge - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2NkJquZ
🇩🇪 #GERMANY GOVT ABOLISHES SOLIDARITY SURCHARGE FOR MOST TAX PAYERS - BBG
🇩🇪 The German economy is facing increased headwinds from abroad and this is fuelling business uncertainty, the finance ministry said on Thursday, adding that the so far robust labor market is showing first signs of cooling❗ - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/us-ger…
🇩🇪 *#BUNDESBANK SEES NO NEED FOR GERMAN FISCAL STIMULUS RIGHT NOW - BBG
Borrowing Never So Cheap for #Germany as Merkel Mulls Stimulus - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2ZjjB4Z
🇩🇪 #Bundesbank Sees No Need for Fiscal Stimulus in #Germany Right Now - Bloomberg
*Economists at the Bundesbank predict output might fall 0.1% in 3Q (implying Technical Recession)
*Link: bloom.bg/2KMXyeX
🇪🇺 🇩🇪 #Germany | #ECB/#Bundesbank's Weidmann sees no need for economic stimulus: FAS - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-ger…
🇩🇪 #Germany Counts Surplus Differently, Finds It’s Even Bigger - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2L9TkwV
🇩🇪 #GERMANY JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.6% V +0.4%E; Y/Y: -4.2% V -3.9%E

Yesterday, factory orders also declined sharply (bit.ly/2kv4zXi)
🇩🇪 *GERMAN BUDGET ADJUSTMENT POSSIBLE IF OUTLOOK WARRANTS: MINISTRY - BBG
🇩🇪 #GERMANY MULLS CREATION OF "SHADOW BUDGET" TO INCREASE PUBLIC INVESTMENTS BEYOND RESTRICTIONS OF NATIONAL DEBT RULES - SOURCES - RTRS
🇩🇪 #Germany mulls shadow budget to circumvent strict debt rules - sources - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ger…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY | *SCHOLZ SAYS PRESENTS SOLID BUDGET WITHOUT NEW DEBT - BBG
🇩🇪 #GERMANY SPD'S KAHRS COMMENTS IN INTERVIEW WITH ARD TELEVISION - BBG
*KAHRS: BUDGET TO STAY IN BALANCE EVEN WITH CLIMATE MEASURES
*GERMAN SPD: CLIMATE MEASURES TO COST AROUND EU4B-EU5B A YEAR
🇩🇪 Investors Would Rather See #Germany Ramp Up Spending Than #China - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2kQzZrs
🇩🇪 #GERMANY GOVT PLANS 2:30 PM PRESS CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE PACKAGE - BBG
🇩🇪 GERMAN COALITION PARTIES REACH DEAL ON CLIMATE PROTECTION PACKAGE - SOURCE - RTRS
*GERMAN CLIMATE DEAL INCLUDES PROVISIONS TO ENSURE DEVIATIONS FROM EMISSIONS TARGETS CAN BE CORRECTED - SOURCE
🇩🇪 *GERMAN COALITION AGREES PLAN ON CLIMATE DEAL: NTV - BBG
🇩🇪 #GERMANY WON'T TAKE ON ADDL DEBT ❗ TO FINANCE CLIMATE PACKAGE: DPA
🇩🇪 *GERMAN CLIMATE DEAL TOTALS 54 BILLION EUROS THROUGH 2023 - BBG
🇫🇷 🇩🇪 #France urges #Germany to act on economy sooner rather later - Reuters
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-fra…
🇩🇪 #Germany | Merkel’s #Climate Deal Will Cost Billions And Everyone Hates It - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 #Germany Monthly Report: Economy off to sluggish start in Q3 - Bundesbank
*GDP could have contracted slightly once again (synonym of technical recession)
bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topic…
🇩🇪 #Germany's VDMA engineering association released a statement, which said that production will fall 2% in 2020, with machine builders preparing for a longer dry spell.

vdma.org/v2viewer/-/v2a…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY SEPT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 94.6 V 94.5E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT SURVEY: 98.5 V 96.9E
- Expectations Survey: 90.8 (lowest since June 2009❗) v 92.0e
🇩🇪 #Germany business calls for end to new borrowing ban - FT
ft.com/content/8921b5…
🇩🇪 #Germany Fiscal Stimulus Already Creeping In, Whatever Merkel Says - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2olnhCo
🇩🇪 #GERMANY FINANCE MINISTER SCHOLZ SPEAKS ON ARD TV - BBG
*SCHOLZ SAYS CLIMATE PACKAGE WON'T ENDANGER FISCAL DISCIPLINE
*SCHOLZ SAYS GERMANY ABLE TO REACT TO ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
🇩🇪 #Germany would be able to counter an economic crisis: Scholz - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-ger…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY INSTITUTES CUT 2019 GROWTH FORECAST TO 0.5% FROM 0.8% - BBG
*GERMAN INSTITUTES CUT 2020 GROWTH FORECAST TO 1.1% FROM 1.8%
*INSTITUTES: TRADE DISPUTES, BREXIT WEIGHING ON GERMAN INDUSTRY
🇩🇪 LEADING GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTES URGE BERLIN TO DITCH ‘BLACK ZERO’ BUDGET POLICY OF NO NEW DEBT IF OUTLOOK DETERIORATES FURTHER - RTRS

🇩🇪 #GERMANY SEES NO NEED FOR STIMULUS PACKAGE, GOV. OFFICIAL SAYS - BBG
🇩🇪 GERMAN GOVERNMENT CUTS 2020 GDP FORECAST TO 1.1% FROM 1.5%; UPHOLDS 2019 FORECAST OF 0.5% - DER SPIEGEL - RTRS
➡ RTRS confirmation:

🇩🇪 *GERMAN GOVT STILL SEES 2019 GERMAN GDP GROWTH AT 0.5%: REUTERS
*GERMAN GOVT LOWERS 2020 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 1.0%: REUTERS

🌎 🇩🇪 *#IMF SEEN ASKING #GERMANY TO DO MORE TO BOOST ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - BBG
*GERMAN DEFICIT LEEWAY AMOUNTS TO ABOUT EU5B IN 2020: OFFICIAL
🇩🇪 #Germany to tap all fiscal options in case of economic crisis: Scholz - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-ger…
🇩🇪 #GERMANY OFFICIALS COMMENT ON SHIFT IN CDU FISCAL POLICY STANCE - BBG
*CDU CAUCUS MAY DROP BALANCED BUDGET GOAL IF DOWNTURN DEEPENS
*GERMANY'S CDU SOFTENING OPPOSITION TO FISCAL STIMULUS
*MERKEL'S CDU PREPARING FOR GERMANY STIMULUS IF GDP TAKES HIT
🇩🇪 Bundesbank Says Deep Recession Not in Cards for German Economy - Bloomberg
*Bundesbank says the economy might have contracted again in the third quarter.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 Architect of #Germany’s debt limit calls for new borrowing - FT
ft.com/content/329675…
🇩🇪 Yesterday, Reuters highlighted that employment in #Germany’s private sector fell for the first time in six years in October ❗
*Link: reut.rs/31LT65t

🇩🇪 #Germany Budget Surplus to Reach Billions in 2019: Handelsblatt - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇩🇪 #Germany | Another interesting tweetstorm from @Brad_Setser on German surplus ⬇

🇩🇪 #GERMANY | *MERKEL ADVISERS CUT 2020 GERMAN GROWTH FORECAST TO 0.9%: FAZ
🇩🇪 #GERMANY FINMIN: ABLE TO ACT IF THERE'S CRISIS, BUT THERE ISN'T - BBG
*GERMAN FINMIN: MANY WANT STIMULUS;GERMANY ALREADY INVESTS A LOT
🇩🇪 #GERMANY | *SCHOLZ: WE SHOULDN'T EXPECT LARGE-SCALE TAX REDUCTIONS - BBG
*SCHOLZ: IF NECESSARY, CRISIS MEASURES TO BE FOCUSED, TEMPORARY
*SCHOLZ: ALL FORECASTS SHOW NEXT YEAR'S GROWTH BETTER THAN THIS
*SCHOLZ: THIS IS NOT A CRISIS
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (1) | After Trump and Xi met on Saturday, the two countries plan to restart trade talks. Following his request to hold a conversation with Xi, Trump had to make 3 concessions ❗ to restart discussions and get a vague Chinese commitment to buy US agricultural products.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (2) | The US compromises came despite, ahead of the meeting, Xi Jinping spared no opportunity to paint the U.S. as the bad guy in #China’s spiraling trade conflict, while avoiding the provocative step of naming Trump personally - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #G20 (3) | Looking at the details, #Trump told reporters 1/ he wouldn’t put additional tariffs on #China for the “time being” (until there is progress in negotiations)…
Read 12 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

➡ #TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets

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Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop
Confirmed: German #GDP also fell in Q2, by 0.1% q/q. Indeed, German GDP is now only 0.4% higher than a year ago, compared to growth of 1.2% in the UK. The equivalent figure of 1.1% for the euro zone as a whole is now likely to be revised down too... (1/4)
The original timing of #Brexit played a part in the fall in German GDP in Q2 too, as activity (eg exports to UK) was brought forward to Q1. But Germany is also more exposed to global trade wars and the #auto crisis, and worried about its currency becoming too *strong*... (2/4)
What’s more, in contrast to the stabilisation in (most) business surveys in the UK, conditions in Germany are continuing to worsen. See, in particular, the July #IFO and #PMIs, and the latest #ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for August (the lowest since December 2011). (3/4)
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
ONS: 0.2% fall in GDP in Q2 - first fall for 7 years - worse than expected
... on that number technical recession possible though not most likely. Probably now in the middle of weakest 2 quarters for growth since the financial crisis, weakest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis...
If consensus expectations correct, it will be weakest showing in G7.
Falls in manufacturing biggest in a decade, driven by No Deal car plant shutdowns, falls in production overall biggest since 2012. Service sector growth slowest in three years.

Consumer held up though.

But this is basically broad based, some of it down to one-offs, but not all
Read 9 tweets
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Tobias Bunde
@TobiasBunde
On my way home from #MSC2019 - and reflecting on the debates, speeches and informal meetings of the past four days in Munich. Let me share my very personal summary - w/ a focus on the transatlantic partnership. Last year, I was quite pessimistic... 1/
So let me start with a bit of good news. In our #MSCreport, we asked who would pick up the pieces of a disintegrating global order. At least rhetorically, the Europeans and representatives of other like-minded liberal democracies have underlined their willingness to step up. 2/
Most attendees agreed that Chancellor #Merkel gave one of the best foreign policy speeches of her career. She really hit a nerve in the audience. Merkel forcefully argued that "all of us" had to pick up the pieces together. 3/
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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