Coronavirus thread.
Warning!
Only Data. Only Charts. From Scientists.
Move on if you want armchair epidemiology.
1/7
Warning!
Only Data. Only Charts. From Scientists.
Move on if you want armchair epidemiology.
1/7
2/ How infectious?
Ro in 2-3 range but promisingly <1 in Hubei & in South Korea (declining outbreak), says:
@AdamJKucharski
@seabbs
@cmmid_Ishtm
Ro in 2-3 range but promisingly <1 in Hubei & in South Korea (declining outbreak), says:
@AdamJKucharski
@seabbs
@cmmid_Ishtm
3/ American Hospital Association
"Best Guess" = 1-2% of us end up in ICU.
"Best Guess" = 1-2% of us end up in ICU.
4/ Centers for Disease Control.
897k US hospital beds in 2015.
Two-thirds occupied by people at any given time.
That's about 300,000 vacant beds
US population = 327 million
If AHA is right, and 1-2% of us are in ICU (but not all at the same time)...
...That's a problem.
897k US hospital beds in 2015.
Two-thirds occupied by people at any given time.
That's about 300,000 vacant beds
US population = 327 million
If AHA is right, and 1-2% of us are in ICU (but not all at the same time)...
...That's a problem.
6/ Deadliness. Chief Epidemiologist, Johns Hopkins, arguably the top epidemiology program.
Said last week that half of us will get it, with 0.1-0.5% dying.
Much more benign than the 1.0% World Health Organization estimate in previous tweet.
Said last week that half of us will get it, with 0.1-0.5% dying.
Much more benign than the 1.0% World Health Organization estimate in previous tweet.
7/ Deadliness. Many don't trust Chinese data, so here are the other countries. World Health Organization, as of today.
I'm no epidemiologist, so form your own opinions.
END OF THREAD.
I'm no epidemiologist, so form your own opinions.
END OF THREAD.
.@threadreaderapp Unroll
