A literal chessboard legend has long been used to illustrate geometric progression, doubling over and over, that is possible in an epidemic if drastic precautions are not taken. Math is not fear-mongering.
Here is one of many versions of the "Rice/Wheat and Chessboard Story." mathscareers.org.uk/article/the-ri… In which a subject tells the king he wants as payment only grains of rice, doubled each day for each square of the chessboard (64).
So one grain of rice for the first day, 2 for the second, 4 more on the third, etc. By day 15, it's 32767 grains of rice, about a kilo or two pounds. Not bad. After 30 days it's 31,138 kilos, around 34 tons of rice. Still doable, but a lot.
You can see how it goes. Soon it's tens of thousands of tons, then millions and billions, and by day 54, the amount has exceeded global rice production and there are still 10 squares to go on the chessboard.
The good news is that people are not rice. We can learn and take precautions to change the murderous math. But denying the danger won't do it. Please stay informed and follow best practices even if you aren't in a high risk group. You can give it to those who are.
It is now clear that if the worst is avoided, it won't be because the most dire warnings were wrong, but because they were listened to. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
