@ninaandtito Also, when looking at huge markets shifts like this, try not to conflate some areas with terrible fundamentals which are direly impacted by this situation - oil - with every other commodity or industry with better long-and-short-term prospects.
@ninaandtito Oil's future was grim to begin with.
Many organizations can finance renewable installation for *negative* cost, as demonstrated by the US military.
& once a majority of new vehicles are EV or hybrid, we can expect an absolute decline in market share.
Many organizations can finance renewable installation for *negative* cost, as demonstrated by the US military.
& once a majority of new vehicles are EV or hybrid, we can expect an absolute decline in market share.
@ninaandtito "What they need to balance the budget" is irrelevant once there's an excess supply.
What you can pump the oil for - or worse, dump refined stocks for - becomes critical, *particularly* if private companies go bankrupt.
Their creditors are maximizing profit, not servicing debt.
What you can pump the oil for - or worse, dump refined stocks for - becomes critical, *particularly* if private companies go bankrupt.
Their creditors are maximizing profit, not servicing debt.
@ninaandtito Even if social distancing is incredibly effective, *merely* having America effectively shut down for a month and a half is Ragnarok with Sharknadoes for the oil industry.
The US may keep our frackers upright, but if we don't, that's arguably *worse* for everyone else.
The US may keep our frackers upright, but if we don't, that's arguably *worse* for everyone else.
@ninaandtito Again, massive demand destruction combined with private companies - or rather, their *creditors* - having to sell for whatever they can get.
Because on top of everything else, there's only so much space to store the oil, costs aside.
After a certain point, you have to sell.
Because on top of everything else, there's only so much space to store the oil, costs aside.
After a certain point, you have to sell.
@ninaandtito #WhateverTheMarketWillBear
If that *sounds* terrible, I'm partly saying it to remind us *most* of the world's industries aren't like that.
Coal has been on life support for years, but it ekes on, despite the fact that it's clearly finished.
If that *sounds* terrible, I'm partly saying it to remind us *most* of the world's industries aren't like that.
Coal has been on life support for years, but it ekes on, despite the fact that it's clearly finished.
@ninaandtito Why?
It's easy to store piles of coal.
And that's *coal.*
New renewables in many areas are already cheaper than using existing coal plants. Natural gas is obliterating it in the US. Most of the hotter-burning, less-polluting anthracite coal is *gone.*
It's easy to store piles of coal.
And that's *coal.*
New renewables in many areas are already cheaper than using existing coal plants. Natural gas is obliterating it in the US. Most of the hotter-burning, less-polluting anthracite coal is *gone.*
@ninaandtito And even *coal* is still here.
So as horrendous as the fundamentals arguably are for oil, don't assume everything else will track with its fate.
So as horrendous as the fundamentals arguably are for oil, don't assume everything else will track with its fate.
