Thread by @swapneilparikh

1/ The most conservative estimates are that 20% of all adults will be infected by SARS-CoV2. Other estimates are as high as 70%

Apologies in advance to epidemiologist friends for oversimplifying the M.A.T.H., but we need to make all (sic) think harder
@mlipsitch @AndrewYang

2/ India has a population of about 1300 million people.

Approx 60% are over 18 years. Let’s stick to adults for these assumptions.

Assuming 20% get infected that’s (1300x0.6x0.2) 156 million infections.

3/ Major assumptions below to illustrate a point:

Currently we believe around 20% of COVID-19 patients require hospitalization and 5% require ICU admission with mechanical ventilation.

Let’s assume 1% will need critical care.

4/ If 156 million Indians get infected, and assuming a conservative 1% of infected patients require critical care,
There will be (156x0.01) 1.56 million ICU admissions. This is an over simplification to illustrate a point.

5/ the average duration of ICU admission for COVID-19 patients is 3-6 weeks. With the best care about 50% of those admitted in the ICU will survive.

6/ It is estimated that there are about 70,000 ICU beds available including all types and across all hospitals and small time nursing homes in India that cater to five million patients requiring ICU admission every year.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

7/ Should we allocate all ICU beds for COVID-19? India already has a shortage of ICU beds. We don’t have too many to spare.

8/ In the times of COVID-19, other disease won’t go away. Heart attacks won’t go away. Malaria and dengue won’t go away. TB won’t go away. History has taught us during pandemics other diseases increase.

9/ Data from South Korea indicates around 0.6-0.7% of confirmed COVID-19 patients died. South Korea is battle tested against the coronavirus. SARS in 2003, MERS in 2015 and COVID-19 in 2020.

10/ South Korea has a much better ratio of hospital beds to population. South Korea has a better ratio of doctors to population. They have done more tests in a day than India has done in total!

11/ Despite being battle tested and having great healthcare, South Korea has had thousands of COVID-19 cases and many deaths.
Colleagues in Italy are reporting a war time scenario. They need to chose whom to try to save and whom they have to let die.

12/ India can barely manage TB, malaria and dengue and we’ve been grappling with those for centuries. How will our overburdened health care system cope with a new and poorly understood disease like COVID-19?

13/ COVID-19 is a serious threat but we can fight back together. Here’s what we need our Indian brothers and sisters to do

Reduce the number of infection!

Flatten the curve!

flattenthecurve.com @figgyjam

14/ Spread the message that COVID-19 is very serious and we need to act aggressively, collectively and decisively to fight back. @WHO

15/ Let us put aside our petty differences, there will be time to fight each other later. Right now we need to fight COVID-19 together.

16/ Protect those most at risk. The young are relatively safer but many of our beloved parents, grandparents and teachers are at high risk! Those with chronic diseases are at high risk! Think of all the elderly people you love, you could lose some of them. Act now!

17/ All mass gathering need to stop immediately. No mass prayers (worship from home), no movies, no parties, no protests, no weddings. No political rallies. When people come into close contacts infection spreads!

18/ If your house is on fire and you panic, it will burn down. If you act calmly and decisively you have a shot at putting out the fire. COVID-19 is a fire, it’s spreading, but we can fight back!

Don’t panic and don’t spread misinformation.

19/
Linking below to credible sources for information about COVID-19
@WHO @MoHFW_INDIA @CDCgov

who.int/emergencies/di…

mohfw.gov.in

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

20/ China bought us precious time to get ready, we should have used it better. We’re in the midst of a pandemic. Flatten the curve, reduce the number of patients as much as possible. This is not a drill, get serious.

Follow @WHO @MoHFW_INDIA @CDCgov @mlipsitch @figgyjam

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