Lots of questions this morning about mortality from #covid19. For my money, best place to look is China where we have a large denominator. This @JAMA_current summary tells us a lot. ja.ma/2U49cFK 1/x
Let's start with spectrum of disease. Looking at 44,415 cases, here's the breakdown:
Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
So yes, most folks are going to be OK. Look at @tomhanks and @RitaWilson. 2/x
Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
So yes, most folks are going to be OK. Look at @tomhanks and @RitaWilson. 2/x
How about mortality? In China, the mortality rate in the first 44,672 cases was 2.3% (1023). But that is not distributed evenly at all. The rate is 14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408) and 8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918). 3/x
Importantly, the mortality rate is quite high--49%--in critical cases (1023 of 2087). Again, this is why it's important to reduce spread, flatten the curve and preserve hospital resources. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… 4/x
In Italy, the statistics are also concerning. Per @TheLancet, "the percentage of patients requiring ARDS treatment is close to 10% for patients who are actively infected." thelancet.com/journals/lance… 5/x
Let's keep these discussions going and rooted in science. 6/6
