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1/ Via CDC in US... cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

Lots of important data for everyone across age groups. While being older might increase the likelihood of a negative outcome, there’s still much for younger folks to be concerned about...
2/ “Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years.”
3/ “Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). “

(Note ICU = Intensive Care Unit)
4/ “Social distancing is recommended for all ages to slow the spread of the virus, protect the health care system, and help protect vulnerable older adults.”

#FlattenTheCurve
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More from @DaveKeto see all

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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ Thread: Are the increases in cases due to expanded testing while infection is going down?

There are definitely higher total confirmed cases of #covid19 due to an expansion on our testing capability.

Many people feel this comprises the bulk of the increase...
2/ ... it's certainly possible.

I discuss this in both social media ("Again, as more testing comes online for the US, expect our numbers to jump.") and my recent blog post.

But how much of our current increase is due to testing?
3/ Or to put it another way, is it possible that our testing capacity is going up as our infection rate is leveling off or going down and this is showing an overall increase in the data on net?

Sure -- it's definitely possible and worth considering.
Read 11 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ My prediction table from week ago had us at 356,763 on this day (23rd) and we are right now clocking in 378,481.

Believe me, I'm not high-fiving anyone over these predictive values -- they are confirming the exponential curve we're on and I consider it very concerning...
2/ The same table has us coming in close to a million cases worldwide in six days and I certainly hope we come in short of that given all the efforts being made to quarantine and #FlattenTheCurve.

Please remember we all participate in this curve. All our actions matter.
3/ Addendum:

Many have requested a look at mortality. The rate of change for confirmed deaths by #covid19 excluding China in the last 14 days average 1.22, (rounded x.xx) source worldofmeters.info
Read 3 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ Thread:

Does having lower LDL Cholesterol associate with worse outcomes of #coronavirus/#covid19?

I'll answer that question, but first let's rephrase it to what you were actually wanting to know...
2/
Does having lower LDL Cholesterol **before getting infected** associate with worse outcomes of #coronavirus/#covid19?

In other words, if you had low LDL when you were healthy just before you got sick, did that associate with things being generally worse?
3/ Answer: We don't know.

Further, if we found it did associate with a worse outcome when having previously lower LDL while healthy, would that be enough reason to avoid low LDL?

Answer: We don't know. We'd need to try to rule out reverse causality.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Aaron Richterman, MD
@AaronRichterman
.@EricMeyerowitz and my talk about #COVID-19 literature update today -

Slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d…

Recording:
dropbox.com/s/bj0bbvggh1jr…

Key points with slides, links to papers below 👇
Virology: most important structural protein S ("spike") protein required for cell entry; nonstructural protein RNA polymerase, helicase; viral proteases that cleave non-structural proteins (PLpro, 3CLpro). Cell entry via ACE2/non-endosomal path

Below=SARS
nature.com/articles/nrd.2…
Environmental viability in EXPERIMENTAL conditions - 3+ hrs aerosol (does not imply routine aerosolization by patients), up to 72 hours steel and plastic.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 45 tweets
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Natalie E. Dean, PhD
@nataliexdean
What does it mean that 20% of hospitalizations are in patients 20-44 years?

An EPI 101 tutorial on how to interpret this widely circulated figure.
Number of hospitalizations per age group depends on a few key quantities:

(1) Size of the age group (how many people are that age?)

(2) Probability of infection in that age group (how often are you exposed?)

(3) Probability of hospitalization once infected in that age group
Importantly, the age groups shown are not all the same size, not least of all because some age groups span more years than others.

Using population data from NYC, the breakdowns are roughly as shown.

NB: I am ignoring 0-19 yrs, so these don’t add to 100%. Not a mistake!
Read 12 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Lots of people are now getting interested in infectious disease epidemiology (which is great), but I wanted to do a quick thread on some common mistakes/misunderstandings to watch out for if you're new to these sorts of datasets/questions... 1/
Epi often involves calculating proportions. But make sure the values on the top and bottom of the fraction are being compared in a sensible way. A good example is fatality risk - often people aren't comparing what they think they're comparing...
2/
The most reliable studies often follow people over time (i.e. prospective), but in real-time we may only have backward-looking studies (i.e. retrospective). Look at differences in this contact-based prospective data and symptom-based retrospective data medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Tim Hogan
@TimInHonolulu
CDC reports. Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to Patients with Confirmed... cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6… via @CDCgov
Seems clear that 10 minutes within 6 feet of a person with the virus in a treatment setting can be enough exposure to contract it. From what I have been able to glean from the reports, people who were at CPAC may have had had a sufficient degree of exposure to be infected.
So isolating ill patients from other household members is key to limiting household transmission. Perhaps having the patient mask when care givers are close. Also would like to know how ventilation can assist in limiting the spread.
Read 3 tweets
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MM Fill, MD
@MMFill
Lots of talk in recent days regarding @CDCgov pan-flu mitigation plans.

Catchy title: "Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017"

Found here 👉cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

In the following thread, I'm going to summarize their recs.

1/x
@CDCgov The plan discusses nonpharmaceutical interventions (aka NPIs) meant to slow the spread of respiratory viruses like influenza (or #COVID19).

These particular guidelines were crafted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and also include 2 supplementary TA guidance docs (online).

2/x
@CDCgov The guidance breaks down into 3 main categories:

1⃣ Personal
2⃣ Community
3⃣ Environmental

3/x
Read 16 tweets
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Tyler Young
@tylerisyoung
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
This is a roundup of what I found to be the most interesting & helpful sources on my journey into the void. #Coronavirus #Pandemic #Misinformation #CDC #CPP #WHO
This is for friends & family, but also to raise concern over media censorship & begin a discussion of what are best practices for both traditional & decentralized media outlets. This is a collection of sources to tell a larger story and spark interest.
Very few sources peer reviewed. Some behind paywalls. Some mainstream news. Some International News. Some in other languages (Use chrome). Some Harvard medical Journals. Some unverified. Some factually incorrect. Have some salt with your rice & beans.
Read 132 tweets

Trending hashtags

#COVID19 #ICU #BeKind #EU #ToryCuts #ContainCOVID19 #aftereffect #Southkorea #FlattenTheCurve #Covid_19 #CDC #DomesticViolence #Misinformation #covidindia #NewWorldOrder #Pandemic #US #India #COVID #SB320 #coronavirus #WHO #flatteningthecurve #GVROAct #NationalSuicidePreventionWeek

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