Profile picture
, 8 tweets, 4 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
NEW: The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress", according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has been advising SAGE

It found from new data that mitigation would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over"

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Revised modelling from new NHS data and Italy showed a mitigation strategy would surpass NHS emergency surge capacity by as much as eight times, leading to 250,000 deaths in Britain

"In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days"

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," said Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial (h/t @whippletom)

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
@whippletom As a result, the report — which its authors said had "informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks" — said: "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
A suppression strategy requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members", and "may need to be supplemented by school and university closures"

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
An "intensive intervention package" will have "maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)", the report said, painting an extraordinary picture of what life could be like in the UK for the next year and a half

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Here is the UK government response to this story: buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Alex Wickham

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @alexwickham see all

Profile picture
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Britons should get ready for “changes to our way of life and what our country looks like”

— ministers say measures will be extended for months rather than weeks
— lasting from the end of March until at least the summer and “perhaps a lot longer”

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Home-working will become the norm for millions of people for months

— likely that many companies will extend home-working until June at least
— Govt thinks it is difficult to see how football fans will be able to return to stadiums in April and May

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Foreign travel will become extremely difficult from next month, senior ministers believe

— stricter FCO advice
— other nations imposing blanket, unpredictable restrictions
— contingency plans for insurance industry as 100,000s face cancelled holidays

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Mark Sedwill has moved to rein in Dom Cummings in an unprecedented move by the civil service against No10

— special adviser HR rules to be rewritten
— new official hired to deal with HR issues
— officials vow to ensure SpAds treated with "respect”

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/ci…
A new £60k Special Advisers' HR Policy Lead will “revise and embed a full suite of HR policies, processes and principles”

— comes amid high-level concerns within the civil service about treatment of SpAds
— and fears that No10 has broken employment law

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/ci…
Civil service intervention comes after special advisers contacted the FDA trade union — which represents civil servants — to discuss their treatment at the hands of Downing Street aides

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/ci…
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Cabinet ministers warn Boris Johnson that No10's management style and decision-making processes are “unsustainable” and “untenable”

💥some special advisers have sought counselling due to stress
💥others are talking about walking out

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
One senior minister said Johnson must “rein in” Dominic Cummings after a series of high-profile bust-ups

— they claimed "half the cabinet” have found themselves unable to work with Cummings
— ministers openly discussing when the PM's top aide will leave

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
Several SpAds have sought counselling and had conversations with Helen MacNamara's cabinet office ethics and propriety unit

— Officials now reporting back to senior civil servants amid concerns over behaviour at SpAd meetings

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Stefan Simanowitz
@StefSimanowitz
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson 1/. It was actually TEN days ago that @BorisJohnson first mentioned the ‘take in on the chin’ theory.

He told it to @Schofe & @hollywills on #ThisMorning on Thursday, 5 March.

A clip of him saying this was tweeted by @mvdct on the same day.

What happened next was remarkable...
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson @Schofe @hollywills @mvdct On Sunday evening, after a tip off from @CereinynOrd (follow her for #coronavirus), I tracked down the clip of the interview.

The clip beings with Boris saying: "One of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go..."
@peterjukes @BorisJohnson @Schofe @hollywills @mvdct @CereinynOrd 3./ He goes on: "...& allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."

To me there were two possible explanations for what Boris had said.

The second far more chilling than the first.
Read 30 tweets
Profile picture
André Picard
@picardonhealth
In today's column, I tried to answer the question: "How much worse can the #coronavirus pandemic get?" So, for data geeks like me, I'm going to post a thread of stories and graphs with projections. theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
How Much Worse the #Coronavirus Could Get - features some great interactive charts and examines how long the #pandemic could last nytimes.com/interactive/20… via @nytimes
Unsurprisingly, Our World In Data has some of the best data on #coronavirus, like this chart that shows how long it took for cases numbers to double. (in Canada it's four days) ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
Mike Tinmouth
@michaeltinmouth
Day 8 in bed ill - a timeline:

Sat 29th - arrive back in London from Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia trip. No health checks at Heathrow. Temperature screening station unmanned.

Tues 2nd - getting a runny nose, headache and mild cough. Temperature of 39.8c. Self isolate.
Wed 3rd - 00.30 start getting a fever and by 4am temperature is 40.5c

05:00 call NHS111, poor UX on automated system but go through to a call who clearly didn’t know procedure. Promised a call back.
11:00 Receive a call from NHS111 repeat all information including travel and fact partner is a school teacher. Explain cough is mild 3/10 and not very dry. Told it’s just flu and no need to self isolate.

11:30 Get a call back - checking cough has phlegm in it - a little.
Read 35 tweets
Profile picture
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
LIVE daily media briefing on #COVID19 with @DrTedros #coronavirus pscp.tv/w/cSknbzI2MTAy…
@DrTedros "In the past 24 hours, #China reported 329 #COVID19 cases – the lowest in over a month.

As of 6am GVA time this morning, 🇨🇳 has reported a total of 78,959 cases to WHO, incl. 2791 deaths.

Outside 🇨🇳, there are now 4351 cases in 49 countries & 67 deaths"-@DrTedros #coronavirus
@DrTedros "Since yesterday, 🇩🇰, 🇪🇪, 🇱🇹, 🇳🇱 & 🇳🇬 have all reported their first #COVID19 cases. All these cases have links to #Italy.

24 cases have been exported from 🇮🇹 to 14 countries, and 97 cases have been exported from 🇮🇷 to 11 countries"-@DrTedros #coronavirus
Read 27 tweets
Profile picture
Tyler Young
@tylerisyoung
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19)
This is a roundup of what I found to be the most interesting & helpful sources on my journey into the void. #Coronavirus #Pandemic #Misinformation #CDC #CPP #WHO
This is for friends & family, but also to raise concern over media censorship & begin a discussion of what are best practices for both traditional & decentralized media outlets. This is a collection of sources to tell a larger story and spark interest.
Very few sources peer reviewed. Some behind paywalls. Some mainstream news. Some International News. Some in other languages (Use chrome). Some Harvard medical Journals. Some unverified. Some factually incorrect. Have some salt with your rice & beans.
Read 132 tweets
Profile picture
EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 346 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Qamishli #Trump #Libya #Tartous #Africa #Portugal #Baghdadi #WarCriminal #countries #flags #semiconductors #Syrian #Hungarian #healthcare #Iran #propaganda #Italian #Germany #CORONAVIRUS #IndianAirForce #SyriaArmy #Kabani #crimes #COVID2019 #US

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!