The virus will eventually be conquered, but it will have left behind a global recession. The costs of that are incalculably high at this time. The most fearsome toll will be on small businesses, the self-employed & those whose lives depend on meagre daily wages. (1/4)
Apart from the toll on lives, the legacy of COVID-19 may well be deaths due to stress, loss of livelhoods, a rise in homelessness & in extreme situations, civil unrest. The only global experience that has lessons for us in the current situation is the last world war. (2/4)
In the aftermath of WW2, the U.S came up with the Marshall plan to revive Europe, effectively a giant fiscal pump-priming. In the U.S, the govt. dramatically dismantled regulations & opened up the economy to trade. These actions led to a boom-cycle that stretched to 1975 (3/4)
This time, there will be no victors, only the vanquished. So every country will have to create its own Post ‘VirusWar” Marshall plan & take care of those in society who are hit the hardest. Perhaps we too can build the foundations of a sustained global growth cycle (4/4)
