Here's a timeline of China's lockdowns, from jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/….
I've added my notes.
Lockdown makes new infections plateau immediately, and starts reducing them after 4-5 days.
But daily new confirmed cases don't start dropping til 2 weeks after lockdown!
I've added my notes.
Lockdown makes new infections plateau immediately, and starts reducing them after 4-5 days.
But daily new confirmed cases don't start dropping til 2 weeks after lockdown!
Note that the lockdown reduces TRUE daily new infections (defined by symptom onset) to a fairly low level after about 17 to 18 days. Our U.S. shutdowns and #StayAtHome orders will be less effective, so this is the most optimistic projection for how long they will take to work.
Italy might be a better comparison. They started lockdowns on March 8, so if the timeline is the same as China, their daily confirmed cases should start falling tomorrow. Any longer, and we can get a better idea of what to expect in the U.S...
