Thread by @bbaue

What’s at Stake: Flatten the Curve to Respect Carrying Capacity
medium.com/@r3dot0/whats-…
The latest blog by @r3dot0 Managing Director @aheadahead1 & me

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 This piece traces how @drewaharris adding the dotted line on “healthcare system capacity” to existing @CDCgov "epi-curve” graphics spotlighted the key role of “carrying capacity” that ultimately fueled the #FlattenTheCurve meme in "going viral”

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov Here’s the original @CDCgov version: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

From reports in 2017 cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
& 2007 stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 (p18)

The @economist picked up on this graphic in its 29 Feb issue: economist.com/briefing/2020/…

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist Here’s the original file where @drewaharris added the dotted line representing healthcare system carrying capacity — the key detail that made the #FlattenTheCurve meme go viral.

https://twitter.com/drewaharris/status/1236152428610883584

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist What’s so important about that dotted line? It adds to the mix the vital notion of carrying capacity — specifically, health care systems’ finite number of beds, doctors, nurses, ventilators, face masks, etc… — to handle the onslaught of exponentially increasing Covid-19 cases...

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist ...without being overwhelmed (as Italy and Spain illustrated).
As it turns out, this key detail made all the difference in the spread of the #FlattenTheCurve meme. And this notion of “carrying capacity" applies far beyond Covid-19 and even pandemics in general...

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist ...most every predicament we face today, from climate change to income inequality, has overshoot or shortfall of carrying capacity at its core.

We need an expanded consciousness on carrying capacity to also go viral if we are to contend with these conundrums.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist The #FlattenTheCurve graphics look almost identical to the carrying capacity graphics Dana Meadows & colleagues included in the 1972 “Limits to Growth” report for @ClubOfRome

donellameadows.org/wp-content/use… pp 91-2

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome What’s particularly pernicious about crossing carrying capacity thresholds is the potential for amplifying feedback loops to trigger tipping points, thus exiting the relative stability of an existing state of a system in a phase shift to an inherently unpredictable systemic state

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome Think of climate chaos as transgressing the carrying capacity threshold of temperature stability (the best science says the dividing line is 1.5C) tipping us into a hothouse earth…

pnas.org/content/115/33…

ipcc.ch/sr15/

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome Enabling humanity to allocate resources that respect carrying capacity thresholds is precisely why we at @r3dot0 are incubating a Global Thresholds & Allocations Council

r3-0.org/gtac/

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome While ecological tipping points typically result in adverse outcomes, social tipping points can be positive, creating the momentum necessary for transformative change toward respect for carrying capacities.

pnas.org/content/117/5/…

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome We at @r3dot0 believe that awareness of thresholds and carrying capacities represents a vital mindset for navigating the 21st Century transformation to a Regenerative & Distributive Economy and Society.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome We believe that the #FlattenTheCurve meme, pivoting as it does on the dotted line of healthcare system capacity, provides a ripe opportunity for a paradigm shift into thresholds and carrying capacity consciousness.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome Indeed, it often takes a crisis to foment the momentum necessary for more radical transformations.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome As @g_kallis points out in his book “Limits," the act of self-limitation — recognizing external limits and making a conscious choice to live within them — represents the highest form of freedom.

sup.org/books/title/?i…

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome @g_kallis The world is currently running a global experiment on whether we can raise the game of self-limitation, as a means of sharing the abundance of this Earth and its living beings with all.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome @g_kallis Covid-19 shows in a time lapse what economic, ecologic and education system failures created in slow motion for the last 3 to 4 decades and what ‘business as usual’ might mean for our future if we don’t take drastic measures very soon.

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome @g_kallis We now have the unique opportunity for a maturation toward the design of a ‘Regenerative & Distributive Economy’ by using thresholds & allocations as the new supply & demand of the 21st century...

@r3dot0 @aheadahead1 @drewaharris @CDCgov @economist @ClubOfRome @g_kallis I’ll end this thread with my favorite line, which my @r3dot0 colleague @aheadahead1 drafted: "It is remarkable that at a moment when the lungs of the world are burning at ecocide levels, humans are met with a lung disease.”

May we learn to heal...