This fight between Trump and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer offers insight into how Trump uses disaster as a partisan tool, and in this case as a re-election strategy.
cnn.com/2020/03/26/pol…
cnn.com/2020/03/26/pol…
2. As of now 12 states have received major disaster declarations for COVID-19 and there will be more on the way. Michigan will certainly be among them. You can follow the declarations for yourself here on the (very bad) @fema website. fema.gov/disasters
3. So what's happening with Trump and Whitmer? If you aren't familiar with the disaster declaration process just carve out an hour and read the Stafford Act OR you could take a short-cut and just read Title IV.
fema.gov/media-library-…
fema.gov/media-library-…
4. In recent years we've actually gotten used to a pretty streamlined process of disaster declarations. Governors have devoted resources to getting these requests in place BEFORE a disaster strikes, especially hurricanes. Accurate long-range weather forecasting has helped.
5. And the Stafford Act is clear about the criteria for a major disaster declaration. There is not a clause in there that I can find for "Delay power for the Executive in consideration of partisanship." Maybe I missed it? (I didn't)
6. But Trump very strategically uses the disaster declaration process as a tool to advance his agenda. What is his agenda? Enhance his own authority, punish those who challenge his authority, rally his base against "enemies," discredit science.
7. Note how he used the 2018 fires in California as a way to advance his incorrect ideas about forest management. And to score points against California with his base voters-those who believe California (and NY) are unworthy, "socialist," and dangerous. washingtonpost.com/politics/presi…
8. Same thing in focusing his wrath on Puerto Rico (instead of TX or FL) in the 2017 hurricane season. Why? Because he was getting criticism from PR government officials like the mayor of San Juan. nytimes.com/2020/01/15/us/…
9. But there's something else at work here, and it's not just Trump. There is good social science research pointing to the fact that the major disaster declaration power has been used to partisan advantage by previous Presidents.
10. Sylves & Buzas (2007) found approval more likely if "the requesting governor is a Republican, the president is a Democrat, and it is an election year." "Presidential Disaster Declaration Decisions, 1953-2003: What Influences Odds of Approval?" State & Local Govt Review, 39:1
11. Husted and Nickerson (2013) found "adverse political incentives created by current federal disaster policy create a significant presence of moral hazard in both federal and state decisions regarding disaster aid." Public Finance Review 42:1
12. To summarize: the disaster declaration system allows enormous discretion to the President, almost a war power--it is an inheritance of the cold war civil defense structure after all. And though we love to believe that such decisions are free of politics, well . . .
13. It's just we've gotten used to Presidents using this power to offer resources to states, not to use declarations to harm states for which they don't like the governors, or where they want to "make an example" of the state to satisfy partisan bloodlust
14. Enter Trump. He sees any opportunity when the Executive gets to decide something as a Roman Coliseum. And he loves holding the thumb in mid-air, baiting the crowd before he puts it up, or down.
15. One could even say it's smart electoral politics. He wants to win Michigan, indeed he must to stay in the White House. So these gestures are aimed at his base in that state. And, Governor Whitmer is certainly playing her own game in shaming Trump-she has higher ambitions, too
16. Could we imagine a better system, one where independent evaluators make these decisions? An NTSB for disaster declarations? Sure, and they could work as fast if not faster than the White House. But we have inherited a cumbersome system. And we get to suffer the consequences.
17. Among the 10 million things that will require investigation, debate, yelling and screaming, and reform after this COVID-19 disaster is over, one of them must be our federal structure of disaster management. /end
18. If you want to learn more about disaster federalism and @fema check out this #COVIDCalls discussion with @SamLMontano and @RamblingRoberts
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soundcloud.com/scott-knowles-…
