Thread by @Neoavatara

So #USA #coronavirus Update.

I am going to add some of the IHME estimates, since Dr. Birx referred to it, and said it aligned with the White House estimates (which we don't readily have access to).

Their estimates say that the US will peak around April 13, after 80k deaths.

New York doesn't seem slowing down. IHME predicts peak on April 5, after 10k deaths. New Jersey and Connecticut peak about a few days later.

California is interesting. Look at the curve. The peak is delayed until April 24, with 6k deaths.

They appear to have successfully flattened the curve.

Washington State too...

Now...look at Louisiana. Look at how sharp the curve is. 2k deaths estimated, which is really high for a state the size of Louisiana.

Mardi Gras really looks like it hurt them. No flattening of the curve.

Michigan is just as bad. 4k deaths estimated.

Now, I have no idea what event caused this for Michigan, but it is clear something did. There is no real flattening of the curve.

Finally, compare that to next door Ohio. They shut down schools, etc almost the same date. But Ohio has their peak 4/16 after 2.7k deaths, while Michigan's peak is 4/8 after 4k deaths.

I can't really explain this.

But...social distancing is making an effect.

The only theory I have between MI/OH? DTW has international flights to Asia, including China. Ohio does not.

I have no idea if this was the cause, but its an interesting thing to think about. Makes you think that quarantines state by state...may make a difference.