"What we do know about the virus is that you're unlikely to be infectious when you don't have symptoms"
This is how the Deputy Director at @PHE_uk National Infections Service re-assured the public (of any age!) that they were safe go to weddings and pubs. How did this happen?
This is how the Deputy Director at @PHE_uk National Infections Service re-assured the public (of any age!) that they were safe go to weddings and pubs. How did this happen?
Many studies now suggest (and suggested before this statement was made!) that people without symptoms can spread the virus. With this degree of uncertainty - why would a public health official not err on the side of caution? buzzfeednews.com/article/stepha… 
We should see deaths now in context of this reckless advice. This clip is from 21 days ago. Average time between infection and death from coronavirus is 23 days. The majority of the 3605 who have died from COVID-19 in the UK would have been infected *before* this clip was filmed.
If we assume the death rate of COVID-19 is around 1%, then if 3605 have now died, we can estimate 360,500 people were infected at least 23 days ago. That's the 11th March. Two days before this clip was filmed.
As these FT graphs show, deaths from COVID-19 tend to double every 3 days. We can assume cases multiply at similar rate. Therefore, on 14th March 721,000 cases. That would mean on the weekend PHE told us to go to weddings and pubs, over 1% of population likely infected.
whoops - shared cases graph, not deaths. But the deaths graph shows same doubling time.
