Thread by @saikirankannan

Is it a Smokescreen or Blatant escalation?

**A Long Thread on the latest developments at the Indo-China Border**

China is in no mood for damage limitation; nor is it interested to repair its relations with nations it has had a frictional relationship.

#INDIA #CHINA

Perhaps, this is a post-pandemic normal. China strangely is in a hurry. Amidst all the COVID-19 commotion, China continued its provocations in the #SouthChinaSea. Now that China is back on its feet, they have started from where they left off in #HongKong... #INDIA #CHINA

...by initiating a new National security law that has come to a lot of criticism. In the Line of Actual control, India and China have been engaged in heightened extensions in terms of troop and machinery build up on both sides. #INDIA #CHINA

Aside from direct impacts, many nations part of the #BeltandRoad initiative are also heavily affected economically during this pandemic. One would assume China will be more interested to repair its image in the post-pandemic world but one would also know that #China...#INDIA

has seldom resorted to this in the past. #China will steamroll as usual to pursue its agenda.

Heightening escalations:
Even as the Pandemic was in full swing in China and across the globe, the Chinese military has got involved in numerous flare-ups across the region.

Be it its close encounters in the Japanese controlled #Senkaku Islands or the deliberate ramming of Chinese coast guard ships into Vietnamese fishing boats or the ever ongoing construction of bases in the #SouthChinaSea. Not to forget its exploits in the #ArabianSea!

indiatoday.in/amp/world/stor…

Aside from military implications, #China has also been facing negative PR and dents to its image owing to the breakout of the COVID-19 virus. Many countries led by the #USA and #Australia are wanting an international probe...

to be carried out on the role of China in the current pandemic which supposedly originated from #Wuhan.

At the industrial front, owing to the above reasons, China has cut off imports from the nations that questioned the Xi government. #INDIA #CHINA

This is apart from the already existing trade war between the #USA and #China.
The pandemic has also resulted in the reorganization of manufacturing and supply chain in Asia and the world over, albeit on a small scale which has seen their bases outside of China.

indiatoday.in/amp/business/s…
. This is again something I had written about recently. The recent financial investments into Indian companies alarmed the Indian government and resulted in the drafting of proposals that will ensure tighter scrutiny...

... of new foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from #China and #HongKong. This is to check the foreign fund inflows into India.
Even as the above events unfolded, the latest action to unfold is at Line of Actual Control that separates #India and China as the de-facto border.

A new chapter in LAC standoffs:
Experts say that not since 1999 has the Indian government had to face intrusions as tricky as this. There were reports of Indian soldiers being injured in a skirmish with a few having to be flown out for hospital care. #INDIA #CHINA

The #Galwan valley is a region that officially belongs to India even going by China’s official claims. The fact that a large number of People’s Liberation Army troops have ventured almost 4 kilometers past the Galwan valley into the Indian Territory...

...makes this a very concerning development. Unlike previous occurrences, the standoffs this time seem to be better structured. Both sides are ramping up the troop presence with #China preparing bunkers and barracks, moving in heavy vehicles...#INDIA #CHINA

and also employing some aerial surveillance. Sources indicate that the Chinese troops advanced into regions classified as Finger 4; this is significant because the Indian troops usually patrol as far as Finger 7 regions. There are Chinese boats patrolling the #PangongTso Lake.

All these have happened over the last month or so, and the limited satellite imagery released by popular #OSINT handles on Twitter confirm the same. What is interesting is that the #Galwan river valley has seldom been the point of conflict in the past with #China...#INDIA #CHINA

choosing other areas like #Chumar and #Demchok and Pangong. This is because the #Galwan region was always considered to be part of India.
Experts suggest that a key trigger point for #China could have been the construction projects carried out by India in the Galwan area.

Whether this will be part of the next set of boundary negotiations remains to be seen as it would mean #India may have to include the #Galwan area as a point of contention. The timeline of it all is also a key aspect to take note as almost at the same time, #Nepal upped...

the ante with the introduction of new political maps that staked claim to parts of Indian Territory. This was touted to be a ploy by the Chinese government to apply territorial pressure on #India in all sides. #INDIA #CHINA

What do #OSINT obtained Satellite Images show?

The #PangongTso Lake is a key region owing to the significance it offers. Often, experts deem that if China was to launch an offensive, this will be the most viable path via which China...#INDIA #CHINA

...can launch one as the same happened in the 1962 war. This is where the #Chushul approach exists. China may have felt uneasy and concerned about the reorganization of the state of #JammuAndKashmir which included the #Ladakh region and hence the urgency shown here. #INDIA #CHINA

Nathan Ruser, a member of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute released the below images in the form of a Twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1264039847431254016?s=20

Nathan Ruser, in his thread, states that “In response to the construction which is likely designed to supply the final...

Indian Army encampment before the #LAC, China has set up several positions of varying size, including one with half-a-dozen tents right on (potentially beyond) the LAC, 500m from the Indian position.”
“Other newly set up positions along the #Galwan River on the Chinese side...

... of the LAC look like this, mostly durable tents, vehicles & some structures. Together there are about 80 tents set up.”
“The frontline Indian positions have also expanded significantly in May, now containing roughly 60 tents, shared between two positions closest to the #LAC."

Another OSINT specialist handle @detresfa_ whom i have quoted multiple times for satellite imagery came up with the below images:

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1264072540579704833?s=20

The Satellite Images of the actual locations of camps currently on both sides.

#PangongTso Lake & #Galwan valley

The OSINT analyst confirms the visibility of boats and possible tent accommodations on the Chinese side of the Pangong Tso Lake.

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1264620104035098624?s=20

What is the Chinese media saying?

The Chinese media has been very subtle about the developments. Recent press conferences concerning the Chinese establishment and military have seldom involved questions on the Chinese standoff with India.

If China wanted to send across a message, they could have chosen to do so. But, it has not happened as of now.
But, their media organisations have carried certain updates that offer some insights as to what China may be looking at in the areas under focus.

Just yesterday, the Global times released an article on a plateau-focused unmanned helicopter making its maiden flight suggesting these could be employed in the Galwan valley region.
globaltimes.cn/content/118934…

“The helicopter is capable of conducting missions including reconnaissance, communication relay, electronic disruption and fire strike at high altitude, this versatile and easy-to-operate drone could help safeguard China's southwestern borders with India” the article reported.

Is it a smokescreen or a blatant escalation?

It remains to be seen what China’s next move is. One that is certain is that it will be a long summer in our north-eastern borders. It may not be as complicated as playing blind chess as China is looking to move in all directions.

For India, it is about deciding on the most pressing move that must be countered first. Surely, India is not playing the waiting game and are countering every single move of that of the PLA thus far.

***End of Thread***