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Lance Roberts Profile picture
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19 Jan, 7 tweets, 8 min read
#TechnicallySpeaking - Signs of #exuberance warn of a #correction.
An update of #margin #debt is sending off warning signals that we haven't seen since the last corrective cycle. Also, why this is NOT a #new #bull #market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Repeat after me: March was not a #bearmarket.
‘Corrections’ generally occur over short time frames, do not break the prevailing trend in prices, and are quickly resolved by markets reversing to new highs."
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 2 that March was not a #bearmarket
#Exuberance in terms of investors allocation to #equities takes years to recover following a real bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 3 - March was not a #bearmarket.
Investors do not immediately rush back into the market, leverage up, and take on incredible #speculative actions following a bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 4 - Following an actual #bearmarket, negative #cash #balances are reversed as #margin calls force mass liquidation of holdings. Such didn't occur in March.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Since the March #correction, individuals are leverage up at the fastest rate seen since the peaks in 2000 and 2008.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
I can't imagine where all of the #speculative action is occurring as the 8-month rate of change in #Margin #debt is fast approaching previous peaks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…

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More from @LanceRoberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture
18 Jan
The @NFIB #survey doesn't get much #media attention, but it should. Small businesses make up almost 70% of #employment and their #confidence tells us much about the #economy and #smallcap stocks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
In December, the #NFIB survey declined to 95.9 from a peak of 108.8. Notably, many suggest the drop was “#politically driven” by #conservative owners. While there was indeed a drop following the election, the decline continues what started in 2018.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Hopes for a #strong #economic recovery may be premature. While #stimulus will give a short-term lift to the economy, once it is spent, growth fades. Businesses won't #invest into artificial supports.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Read 8 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
14 Dec 20
Recently, Dr. Shiller suggested that #valuations really aren't that high once you fall in the #Fed trap of using #earnings #yields and #low #rates to justify it. The problem is it is a #rationalization to justify overpaying for #assets.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
The main problem in using low-interest rates as a rationalization to overpay for assets is that you have to also discount #future #cashflows for lower inflation and rates as well.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
"As low-interest rates went lower, the dynamic changed from using debt productively to using debt for non-productive purposes such as dividend issuance, share buybacks, and, in some cases, offsetting negative cash flows."
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
12 Dec 20
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #bullish #bias kept #market holding above recent #breakout levels, but extensions and deviations from means remain extreme. We could see further weakness next week before the year-end "#WindowDressing" #rally.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu…
While markets did weaken slightly over the last few sessions, the #market remained above recent breakout levels. However, with a short-term #MACD #sellsignal, and #options #expiration next Friday, we could see further weakness next week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu… Image
In August we laid out our year-end #target of 3750. With the #SantaClaus rally ahead, (in reality it is #WindowDressing week) we are close to our mark. 2021 will likely prove to be disappointing as we lay out the #risks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu… Image
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
10 Feb 20
"Despite a few notable hiccups along the way, the bull market continues to prove insanely resilient.” @slangwise
What if? We explore what a 10-60% correction would do to investors and their #retirement. While this #TimeIsNotDifferent, you are.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
@slangwise Looking at potential retracement levels, to the lows of 2018, or the highs of 2015-2016 would not be out of the ordinary. A mean reversion event would be the lows of 2016 to the highs of 2008.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
@slangwise A problem with #market #corrections always overlooked by #mainstream #analysis.
If you need 6% per year to reach your goals, and suffer a 20% correction, it doesn't require JUST 25% to get back to even. You have to ALSO make up the 6%/year lost as well.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
Read 8 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
3 Dec 19
Q3-2019 EARINGS - The Good, Bad, & Ugly.
With the bulk of earnings in we can analyze just how "good" those earnings actually were, and what we should expect next. Also, what #profits are telling us. $SPY $TLT #Earnings #Profits #Recession #Reversion
realinvestmentadvice.com/fundamentally-…
Earnings - The Good:
"With 73% of companies beating estimates, it certainly suggests that companies in the S&P 500 are firing on all cylinders, which should support higher asset prices."

However, as they say, the “Devil is in the details.”
Earnings - The Bad
"In order for companies to achieve the 73% 'beat rate' - estimates had to be crushed to accommodate lower earnings."
realinvestmentadvice.com/fundamentally-…
Read 8 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
24 Nov 18
REAL INVESTMENT REPORT - $OIL SENDS A CRUDE WARNING. A look at the warning sign being thrown off by the decline in #oil and what it may mean for the markets. $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Those suggesting the drop in #oil is only a "supply problem" are looking at economic data which is both lagging and subject to revisions. Oil is telling you the global slowdown is coming home. $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Given the energy bonds make up about 15% of the high-yield index, the drop in oil prices is a huge #redflagwarning investors should be paying attention to. $JNK $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Read 4 tweets

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