#TechnicallySpeaking - Signs of #exuberance warn of a #correction.
An update of #margin #debt is sending off warning signals that we haven't seen since the last corrective cycle. Also, why this is NOT a #new #bull #market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Repeat after me: March was not a #bearmarket.
‘Corrections’ generally occur over short time frames, do not break the prevailing trend in prices, and are quickly resolved by markets reversing to new highs."
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 2 that March was not a #bearmarket
#Exuberance in terms of investors allocation to #equities takes years to recover following a real bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 3 - March was not a #bearmarket.
Investors do not immediately rush back into the market, leverage up, and take on incredible #speculative actions following a bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 4 - Following an actual #bearmarket, negative #cash #balances are reversed as #margin calls force mass liquidation of holdings. Such didn't occur in March.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Since the March #correction, individuals are leverage up at the fastest rate seen since the peaks in 2000 and 2008.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
I can't imagine where all of the #speculative action is occurring as the 8-month rate of change in #Margin #debt is fast approaching previous peaks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LanceRoberts

18 Jan
The @NFIB #survey doesn't get much #media attention, but it should. Small businesses make up almost 70% of #employment and their #confidence tells us much about the #economy and #smallcap stocks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
In December, the #NFIB survey declined to 95.9 from a peak of 108.8. Notably, many suggest the drop was “#politically driven” by #conservative owners. While there was indeed a drop following the election, the decline continues what started in 2018.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Hopes for a #strong #economic recovery may be premature. While #stimulus will give a short-term lift to the economy, once it is spent, growth fades. Businesses won't #invest into artificial supports.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Read 8 tweets
14 Dec 20
Recently, Dr. Shiller suggested that #valuations really aren't that high once you fall in the #Fed trap of using #earnings #yields and #low #rates to justify it. The problem is it is a #rationalization to justify overpaying for #assets.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
The main problem in using low-interest rates as a rationalization to overpay for assets is that you have to also discount #future #cashflows for lower inflation and rates as well.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
"As low-interest rates went lower, the dynamic changed from using debt productively to using debt for non-productive purposes such as dividend issuance, share buybacks, and, in some cases, offsetting negative cash flows."
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
Read 6 tweets
12 Dec 20
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #bullish #bias kept #market holding above recent #breakout levels, but extensions and deviations from means remain extreme. We could see further weakness next week before the year-end "#WindowDressing" #rally.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu…
While markets did weaken slightly over the last few sessions, the #market remained above recent breakout levels. However, with a short-term #MACD #sellsignal, and #options #expiration next Friday, we could see further weakness next week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu… Image
In August we laid out our year-end #target of 3750. With the #SantaClaus rally ahead, (in reality it is #WindowDressing week) we are close to our mark. 2021 will likely prove to be disappointing as we lay out the #risks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exu… Image
Read 6 tweets
10 Feb 20
"Despite a few notable hiccups along the way, the bull market continues to prove insanely resilient.” @slangwise
What if? We explore what a 10-60% correction would do to investors and their #retirement. While this #TimeIsNotDifferent, you are.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
@slangwise Looking at potential retracement levels, to the lows of 2018, or the highs of 2015-2016 would not be out of the ordinary. A mean reversion event would be the lows of 2016 to the highs of 2008.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
@slangwise A problem with #market #corrections always overlooked by #mainstream #analysis.
If you need 6% per year to reach your goals, and suffer a 20% correction, it doesn't require JUST 25% to get back to even. You have to ALSO make up the 6%/year lost as well.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-downtur…
Read 8 tweets
3 Dec 19
Q3-2019 EARINGS - The Good, Bad, & Ugly.
With the bulk of earnings in we can analyze just how "good" those earnings actually were, and what we should expect next. Also, what #profits are telling us. $SPY $TLT #Earnings #Profits #Recession #Reversion
realinvestmentadvice.com/fundamentally-…
Earnings - The Good:
"With 73% of companies beating estimates, it certainly suggests that companies in the S&P 500 are firing on all cylinders, which should support higher asset prices."

However, as they say, the “Devil is in the details.”
Earnings - The Bad
"In order for companies to achieve the 73% 'beat rate' - estimates had to be crushed to accommodate lower earnings."
realinvestmentadvice.com/fundamentally-…
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov 18
REAL INVESTMENT REPORT - $OIL SENDS A CRUDE WARNING. A look at the warning sign being thrown off by the decline in #oil and what it may mean for the markets. $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Those suggesting the drop in #oil is only a "supply problem" are looking at economic data which is both lagging and subject to revisions. Oil is telling you the global slowdown is coming home. $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Given the energy bonds make up about 15% of the high-yield index, the drop in oil prices is a huge #redflagwarning investors should be paying attention to. $JNK $SPY $TLT realinvestmentadvice.com/oil-sends-a-cr…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!