2/12
As I argued a couple of days ago, the transfer of Soviet-era air superiority fighters from #NATO stocks could be an important symbolic move, but they are not the ideal #airdefence assets under the given circumstances. Arguments below 👇
3/12 #Ukrainian ground based #airdefence systems have been really successful over the past 13 days. Even if the transfer of fighter planes is a no go, SAM systems with #Russian origin still in service in NATO countries could be potentially delivered to #Ukraine. @ukraine_world
4/12 #Poland, #Slovakia, #Bulgaria, #Romania should consider to transfer their old Russian mobile SAM systems to Ukraine. (SA-10 Grumbles, SA-8 Geckos, SA-6 Kubs) These will be familiar to Ukrainian personal and ideal to fight Russian planes pushed above 1500m by the #MANPADS.
5/12 #Ukraine having such #airdefence systems operational is crucial, because the threat they pose in medium and high altitudes force #Russian air planes lower, within the effective range of the #MANPADS.
8/12
Even if 🇺🇦 personal must be trained to use modern Western mobile gap-filling radars, given that a protracted war is a very likely scenario, this form of #militaryaid definitely makes sense.
9/12
Sharing available #NATO data real time about #Russian air operations (over #Belarus and the Western part of #Ukraine, where such information exist) with #Ukrainian military should be considered as well.
10/12
In the same spirit, the training of #Ukrainian#airdefence personal to Western assets like the #Roland or #Patriot systems could also be started.
11/12 #NATO countries dispose over large stocks of such assets and supplying #Ukraine with them is more sustainable in the long run than the transfer of Soviet-era hardware.
12/12
Time is crucial in supporting the defence of #Ukraine. Instead of focusing on a single symbolic issue, like the transfer of #Mig29s, #NATO countries have to work in parallel on several potential tracks. And there are many, even if we are only speaking about 🇺🇦 #airdefence.
2/4 There appears to be a growing pattern that #Orbán allies look for investment opportunities in the high-tech end of the international defence & security sector. (See the case of #AeroVodochody and its Hungarian investors) reuters.com/article/uk-aer…
3/4 While acquiring lucrative foreign investments (which the seriously indebted #Spacecom is not) might be a logical strategy for a #corrupt#RentSeeking elite, like the circles of #Orbán, there is definitely more behind this story.
What is in the background of the #Lega-#PiS fallout?
THREAD 1/6 #Lega is divided on the question what should be the party's future direction. There is a growing support for heading to #EPP, which puts pressure on @matteosalvinimi, who is otherwise very pragmatic in this question.
2/6 So #Salvini has more options and leeway than his #RadicalRight counterparts, but he also needs palpable results what he can present for his constituency. #Lega
3/6 Allegedly there was an agreement between #Lega & #PiS (or at least that was Lega's communication in the 🇮🇹 media) that #PiS and some of its #ECR allies will join #ID, and that will be the formal and procedural way to forge a single new #RadicalRight political group in the 🇪🇺.
European #RadicalRight jamboree soon resumes in #Warsaw, without @matteosalvinimi & his #Lega. Maybe I am wrong, but considering the recent fallout between the host #PiS & #Lega, it is rather unlikely that today's meeting will result in anything else than #PR pure.
THREAD 1/3
2/3 The union of European #RadicalRight doesn't appear to be an actual political reality and showcasing close coordination and joint plans for the future is perhaps more difficult for #Lega, #RN, #PiS, #Fidesz & #FratellidItalia than ever since 2019.
3/3 IMHO we won't see similar multilateral gatherings of leading #RadicalRight parties for a while. The main reason that #LePen & #Orbán are present is face saving to avoid the public perception of a total collapse of cooperation.
On a leaked audio recording, chairman of the #Hungarian parliament #KövérLászló calls 🇭🇺opposition the most significant #NationalSecurity threat the country is facing and asks the 🇭🇺 domestic intelligence agency to mitigate this threat. (THREAD 1/5) 444.hu/2021/11/27/kov…
2/5 #Kövér addressed the leadership of the domestic intelligence/counter-intelligence agency #AVH in February 2020.
3.
External #ForeignMeddling is only in a small-part responsible for #autocratization and #illiberal developments in the Western World. The main drivers of autocratization in #EU & #NATO countries are overwhelmingly domestic.
2/5 IMHO the regulation doesn't have to have retroactive effect, as it comes into force on January 1, 2021. The coming into force is not postponed, just @EU_Commission
refrains from proposing measures under the regulation, which does not exclude the monitoring of situation in MS.
3/5 @EU_Commission isn't legally bound by the declaration, but apparently is part of the political deal. As the Commission has high margin of discretion how it fulfils its task as Guardian of the Treaties, it can hardly be sued for not proposing measures for any reason.