Thread by @jseldin

HAPPENING NOW: @CENTCOM Cmdr Gen Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie & @USAfricaCommand Cmdr Gen Stephen Townsend testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee

Chairman @SenJackReed opens up talking abt #Iran missile strike in #Irbil #Iraq...

Intro remarks from ranking member @JimInhofe

"#Iran is the foremost threat" in the @CENTCOM region, he says

"Our partners increasingly doubt America's resolve" he adds, blaming what he calls "Pres. Biden's misguided policies"

"The threat posed by #Iran is graver than ever" @CENTCOM's Gen Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie warns in his opening remarks

"#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine moreover has violently demonstrated its willful disregard for int'l norms just have we have seen thru Russia's actions in #Syria

"In a more measured fashion, #China is also vying for influence at America's expense" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

Groups like #alQaida #ISIS continue to pose a credible threat to the homeland, per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

Region remains "the decisive theater in the campaign against VEOs [violent extremist organizations]"

IDP camps in #Syria remain "fertile soil for indoctrination & spreading terror" for #ISIS, per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

#Afghanistan - containing the terror threat from 'over the horizon- i "This is difficult. It is not impossible"
per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"We will be able to do this only so long as CENTCOM has the requisite resources to find, fix & finish threats...margins are thin"

#Iran "only loosely control the militias that conduct these attacks & as recently as 202, Iran demonstrated its willingness to target US forces directly" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"#Iran's ballistic missile forces constitute an exigent threat to the security of every state in the region" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

US partners in the region "continue to look to the #United States that we...will remain a reliable [partner]"

"America cannot ignore #Africa" per @USAfricaCommand Cmdr Gen Stephen Townsend

"#Russia & #China both seek to convert both soft & hard power investments into political influence, strategic access & military advantage"

"Across the continent, mercenaries from #Russia's Wagner Group offer a 1-stop shop for regime protection, resource exploitation & horrific violence against Africans" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"Deadly terrorism has metastasized" in #Africa, per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

#alShabaab & #ISIS & #alQaida groups "are among the worlds fastest growing, wealthiest & deadliest terrorist groups, & remain grave & growing threats tat aspire to kill Americans..."

"The battle between democracy & authoritarianism is raging across #Africa" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"Despite a recent surge in democratic backsliding, our values, our democracy...creates a huge demand for US engagement" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"A primary objective of our policy in the region is for #Iran not to possess a nuclear weapon" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"I think the best & most effective way to get to that position is thru a negotiated agreement, which I fully support..."

Removing US forces from #Somalia - "Commuting to work has caused...new challenges & risks for our troops" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "It's not effective...It puts our troops at greater risk"

#Somalia - "I have submitted advice to my chain of command & my chain of command is still considering that advice. I'd like to give them space to make that decision" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

#China-economic penetration into #MiddleEast: "They draw a significant portion of their hydrocarbons from the region" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "A lot of that goes to the #StraitofHormuz"

#Beijing "interested in close, deep economic relations" w/area countries

"Ultimately, that will move from economic to a military component" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie on #China's relations with countries in/around #StraitofHormuz

"We remain the partner of choice for military systems. Our military systems are the best in the world" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"You get what you pay for if you buy a Chinese system..."

#China's investments in #Africa - "It's daunting" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"They are investing primarily in the economic realm, then followed by the diplomatic realm, & to a lesser degree in the military domain"

#China - "their military investments are playing out in Africa...They are working hard to develop other overseas bases there" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"We remain the partner of choice" in #Africa, per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

But delays in delivering security aid, training "sometimes forces our African partners to go w/ the bird in hand, which is sometimes #Russia, sometimes #China"

#Russia-#Ukraine-#Africa - Many countries, "they're trying to see how this is going to play out" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend, saying that half of African countries abstained/did not vote on UN measure to condemn Russian invasion

"It's troubling to me..."

NEW: "We have conducted no strikes in #Afghanistan" since US pullout in August 2021, per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

Says there is "considerable information" on terrorist plotting there, but classified

re #ISIS #alQaida

"Sustained CT pressure is what prevents groups from being able to grow, to train..." per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"For example, in the Euphrates River Valley in #Iraq & #Syria, #ISIS is unable to think beyond surviving that night or the next night"

Threat of attack from #ISIS-#Khorasan vs US - 12-18 months away, per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"...represents out best whole of intelligence community thinking on this"

This is pushed back from more dire warnings in October...
voanews.com/a/timeline-for…

#Iran - "Over the last several months, their attacks have tapered off" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "particularly in #Iraq, which I believe Iran views as the principle battleground for confronting the UnitedStates & our partners..."

"We've been able to do that by increasingly effective counter-UAS & other systems to defend ourselves" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"At the same time, their [#Iran] finding it increasingly difficult to get any political traction w/ the gvt of #Iraq"

"I think for a long time, #Iran tried to pursue a political solution in #Iraq that is not open to them anymore" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

US flying ISR through #ALOC - #Pakistan, per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

#Afghanistan - "The #Taliban are attempting to maintain pressure on #ISIS" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "They're finding it difficult to do"

"ISIS has been able to execute some profile attacks even in #Kabul over the last several months" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "It is my expectation that ISIS attacks will ramp up as we go into the summer"

"[#Taliban] I think they're much less firm on the #alQaida issue, in terms of opposing them & trying to limit them" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "Although they have done some things publicly that would make you think they at least want to send signals that they're doing [it]"

#Iran - "At the military level, my concern is 1st of all that they not have that nuclear weapon..." per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"...But I am also very concerns abt the remarkable growth in number & efficiency of their ballistic missile force, their UAV program-their long-range drones, & their land-attack cruise missiles" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie on #Iran

NEW: #Iran has at 3,000 ballistic missiles "some of which can reach #TelAviv" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"None of them can reach #Europe yet. But over the last 5-7 years...they have invested heavily in their ballistic missile program"

#Iran's ballistic missiles "have significantly greater range & significantly enhanced accuracy" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

Buyers remorse from countries in #Africa buying military equipment from #China?

"I would say yes" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "The countries that we see see still hewing to China are those that are...not well governed or they're autocrats"

#Russia #Cyber in #Africa

Oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin-"He has troll farms, invests in troll farms in Africa" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "A number of those were involved in election interference globally, to include our country.. That continues"

Some from #China too

#Afghanistan- "We know that the #Taliban is actually carrying out searches for former Afghan gvt officials" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "We know that women are entering a new and repressive existence..."

"The continued press of ppl that want to leave #Afghanistan is perhaps the best indicator of what conditions are like on the ground" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

NEW: in #Africa, "We do see a lot of #Russia|n activity. It's almost all in the form of these pvt military contractors...namely the Wagner Group & some other smaller ones" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"They're a malign influence. They don't follow anybody's rules..."

"They buttress dictators. They do gross violations of human rights" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "It's bad for #Africa's security & prosperity"

re #Russia mercenaries in #Africa

#Russia|n mercenaries "They're present in #Libya...to a lesser extent #Sudan" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "They essentially run the #CentralAfricanRepublic & they're now in #Mali, gather strength in Mali, over 1,000 #Wagner operators there now"

"I think the gvt & the ppl of #Mali are going to regret inviting [#Russia's] Wagner into the country" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

#Somalia-#alShabaab: "We are marching in place, at best" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "We may be backsliding w/the security situation"

Says partly due to "commuting to work" & "political dysfunction in #Mogadishu. It's also inactivity by the AMISON partners..."

"What we're doing is not providing sufficient pressure & the best we can do is maintain a secure bases we return to" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend "We can't really get at #alShabaab"

#Somalia

#Afghanistan-"We continue to watch carefully as #ISIS grows...they still aspire to attack the #UnitedStates & our partners abroad" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "So we're going to watch very carefully what the #Taliban will be able to & not able to do..."

#Afghanistan: "#AlQaida is a little more difficult to understand bcs of their cultural interweaving w/the #Taliban" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie "They [AQ] still have a aspirational desire to attack us. It will be harder for the Taliban I predict to ultimately control their actions"

#Taliban "They've done some things that are very public in order to limit them [#alQaida]" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "I think it remains to be seen if this is actually going to be translated into action"

#Russia's #Wagber - "They are guns for hire" per @USAfricaCommand Gen Townsend "They are going to be extracting natural resources out of Africa..."

"What they're doing for the #Kremlin....they're displacing Western influence like #France for example in #Mali..."

#Russia #Wagner in #Mali: "I predict they will not be successful in the long-run" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Townsend

"An example tho is in #Libya where they have worn out their welcome...Even the Libyans who the Russians supported in the civil war now want them to depart"

"#Iran foments a particularly virulent form of anti-Americanism across the theater" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "It is a long term objective of Iran for the United States to be forced to exit from the region"

"[#Iran] they see the principle battleground for that as being #Iraq bcs that's we're the most distributed, the most vulnerable" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie

"They've tried to pursue a political solution for that - that has not worked out for them" he says "It has riven #Iran & its proxies, its proxies in particular to seek kinetic solutions to push us out" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "That...has not proven to be the case"

#Iran missile attack in #Irbil - "We do not believe the attack of this last weekend, the ballistic missiles, was actually targeted against us" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "We believe it was going against other targets ..."

#Syria|n fighters to #Ukraine? "We believe that out of Syria there are perhaps small, small, very small groups of pll who may be trying to make their way to #Ukraine" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie "But I've got nothing beyond that..."

"Right now it's a small, very small trickle"

#Afghanistan - #ISIS-#Khorasan: "We are concerned about the developmental trajectory of ISIS-K" per @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie - promises more details in closed session