Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jul 21 20 tweets 16 min read
NEW: 15,000 #Russia|n soldiers killed in #Ukraine - estimate given by @CIA Dir William Burns Wednesday - "probably a conservative estimate" #Britain's @ChiefMI6 Richard Moore tells #AspenSecurity
NEW: #Russia in #Ukraine: "I think they're about to run out of steam" per @ChiefMI6

"Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower, materiel over the next few weeks"
Inevitable #Russia|n pause - "That will give #Ukrainians the ability to strike back" per @ChiefMI6
"There's no evidence that #Putin is suffering from serious ill health" per @ChiefMI6, back public assessment from @CIA Dir William Burns
NEW: "MI6 has never had illusions whatsoever about communist #China" per @ChiefMI6, noting #Beijing a bigger threat now than terrorism
#Ukraine - #China - #Taiwan - "I think it is too early to tell what lessons they [China] will draw from #Putin's misadventures in Ukraine" per @ChiefMI6

"Xi Jinping is watching this like a hawk" Moore adds, noting "He underestimates US resolve & power"
NEW: War between US-#China-"I don't think it's inevitable at all" per @ChiefMI6

BUT "It is really important as Pres. Xi, as he calculates what he may or may not do on #Taiwan, looks at what can go wrong w/a misjudged invasion...It's important that we remind him of those risks"
NEW: Reviving #JCPOA with #Iran - "If we can get a deal it is probably the best means still available to constrain the Iranian nuclear program" per @ChiefMI6

"I'm not convinced we're going to get there...I don't think the supreme leader of Iran wants to cut a deal"
"Even if we do the deal, by the way, there's still plenty of work for my service to do bcs of hat they're up to in terms of destabilizing activity around the region...#Iraq, in #Syria, even down in #Yemen" per @ChiefMI6 on #Iran
#Iran "They're still assassinating, trying to entrap dissidents overseas, as well" per @ChiefMI6
#Iran nuclear deal - "The deal is absolutely on the table...I'm skeptical the supreme leader will go for the deal" per @ChiefMI6

"I don't think that the #Chinese & #Russia|ns on this issue would block it but I don't the Iranians want it"
Any concerns about divisions within the US?

Partnership w/@CIA is solid, special relationship "extraordinarily intimate" per @ChiefMI6

Says he has "huge affection for this country [US] & huge admiration for what it's capable fo doing"
"We crack on... MI6 deals with the world as it is, not as we would want it to be" per @ChiefMI6
Counterterrorism in #Afghanistan -"It's now more difficult" per @ChiefMI6

"We'll have to find different ways" to prevent #alQaida from growing again, he says, noting West will "have to find some middle ground partners"
#China's intelligence services, "They're not 10 feet tall" per @ChiefMI6

"They are perfectly possible to work against & that's what we're determined to do" he says, adding US, #Britain have an advantage - "We have friends"
#Russia-#China agreeing on "no limits" on their partnership - "When Pres. Xi says these things, he means them & we ought to listen hard" per @ChiefMI6

Says China would provide Russia w/military assistance if they thought they could get away w/it
#China "right on the front foot beating the #Russia|n drum, selling the Russian narrative on #Ukraine" per @ChiefMI6

"But it's not an equal partnership & Ukraine has made it less equal. #Moscow is very much the junior partner & the Chinese are very much in the driving seat"
"Let's not overplay the power & attractiveness of the #Chinese model" per @ChiefMI6

"There's some pretty interesting news breaking, isn't there, about indebtedness around the Belt&Road initiative & this is building..." he says, pointing to #SriLanka
.@ChiefMI6 wars of #China's "data traps" in addition to "debt traps"
#Russia|n intel taking a bit hit since invasion of #Ukraine

In #Europe "something north of 400 Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover have been expelled" per @ChiefMI6 "...reduced their ability to do their business to spy for Russia in Europe by half"

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More from @jseldin

Jul 22
NEW: #Ukraine unleashing "very precise, very accurate" targeting of #Russia , per senior defense official

"They're paying a high price" official says of #Russia, saying its forces suffering "low morale"
On the new $170 million drawdown/aid package -"The capabilities in this package are going to be useful on the battlefield immediately" per senior US defense official

That include the #Himars, more artillery ammo
580 #PhoenixGhost drones that will be procured - "steady deliveries" will begin in August, per senior US defense official
Read 23 tweets
Jul 22
NEW: #Ukraine-"It was the assessment of the American intelligence community...#Russia would be significantly more capable & significantly more successful on the battlefield" White House Nat'l Security Adviser @JakeSullivan46 tells #AspenSecurity
"In fact, #Russia was not able to acheive the basic strategic objectives that Pres. #Putin set out" per @JakeSullivan46

#Ukraine "won the battle of #Kyiv, they beat Russia back from #Kharkiv, they stopped Russia from being able to make a bum's rush to #Odesa"
"Now we're in a circumstance where #Russia is facing significant difficulties constituting th kind of force necessary for them to achieve the objectives which have not fundamentally changed" per @JakeSullivan46
Read 13 tweets
Jul 22
BREAKING: US announces new, $270 million security package for #Ukraine, per @WHNSC's John Kirby

Includes 4 more #HIMARS "which the #Ukrainians have been using very effectively", 36k rounds of artillery ammo, some anti-armor systems

Also includes 580 #PhoenixGhost drones
"We'll have more packages of aid [for #Ukraine] to announce in the weeks and months to come" per @WHNSC's John Kirby
White House praises grain deal signed Friday but cautions "success of course is going to depend on #Russia's compliance w/the agreement" per @WHNSC's John Kirby
Read 6 tweets
Jul 22
"We used to always talk about super powers & I think we now live in a world where we need to talk about cyber powers" @Microsoft President & Vice Chair @BradSmi tells #AspenSecurity

"2 of the great #cyber powers in the world are #Russia & #China..."
"The United States is the strongest #cyber power of all" per @Microsoft's @BradSmi

"But what we're fundamentally seeing is #Ukraine in particular is Russia use its very sophisticated cyber capabilities to do 3 things..."
"One is support an invasion, including w/destructive cyber attacks" per @Microsoft's @BradSmi

"The 2nd is do what the #Russian gvt does year-in, year-out, which is very broad-based espionage & hacking, both of gvt & pvt sector"
Read 10 tweets
Jul 22
#Drone threat to the US - "We [US] have to think abt whether or not humans will remain in the kill chain bcs some of our adversaries have decided they will not & that the targeting will be done much quicker" House Intel Comm.'s @RepJasonCrow tells #AspenSecurity
Threat to US from drones-"How do we stop those drones before they ever launch?" asks @USSOCOM Commander Gen. Richard Clarke tells #AspenSecurity

"The cost for entry...is very very low" he says, adding there also needs to be discussion of norms for use of drones
#Chemcial-#Biological threat to US significant, even from non-state actors - "It's pretty simple to do" per @USSOCOM's Gen Clarke
Read 15 tweets
Jul 21
"#Iran is threatening the other countries as much as it is threatening the State of #Israel" Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz tells #AspenSecurity

"Iran is a global challenge. You can see it in #Venezeula. You can see it in South #Africa, in South America... #Nigeria"
#Israel-#Ukraine - "Israel is definitely on the Western side. Israel is definitely on the #Ukrainian side" per DefMin Gantz

"We are supporting it in all the diplomatic measures. We are supporting it w/all the humanitarian aid...We have opened a field hospital"
Why not more for #Ukraine? "We do have our operational considerations" per #Israel's Gantz

"We are sharing an aerial border w/the #Russia|ns above #Syria ... so we have other calculus that we have to take into mind"
Read 7 tweets

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