Thread by @AgathoniaMedia

#Scenarios: "we present a model that extrapolates observed growth in #millionaire numbers (1990–2020) and associated changes in #emissions to 2050. Our findings suggest that the share of US$2020-millionaires in the world population will grow ...

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

... from 0.7% today to 3.3% in 2050, and cause accumulated emissions of 286 Gt CO2. This is equivalent to 72% of the remaining carbon budget, and significantly reduces the chance of stabilizing climate change at 1.5 °C."

#CarbonInequality #inequality

"most recent assessment indicates changes in distribution, with the top 1% now being responsible for 17% of total #emissions, the top 10% for 48%, and the bottom half of the world population for only 12% (in 2019). These numbers illustrate the role of the #wealthy in ...

... driving emission growth, with the top 0.01% emitting in excess of 2300 t CO2-e per capita in 2019, compared to 6 t CO2-e on global average."

"... or up to 300,000 times greater than the contribution of the poorest, at 0.1 t CO2 per person and year"

"The estimate is that by 2030, under consideration of NationallyDetermined Contributions, global #emissions may increase to around 62 Gt CO2-equivalent per year (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF);"

"Nominal #millionaire numbers for the period 2010 to 2021 are provided by Credit Suisse (2021). Historical geometric #growth revealed by this data suggests an average growth rate of 7.9% per year, which we extrapolate to 2050."

"Data presented by Barros and Wilk (2021), including housing, air travel, and yachts, suggests an average of more than 8100 t CO2-e (or 6100 t CO2) per #billionaire and year for a sample of 20 billionaires. Emissions are driven by yacht ownership (64%
of annual direct ...

... emissions), followed by transport (34%) and real estate (2%)."

"there were 5245 superyachts with lengths of 30 180 m in 2021, a five-fold increase from 1090 yachts in 1990"

"the number of #millionaires increases to 318.2 million or 3.3% of the world population in 2050. Even though #emissions per millionaire fall significantly, to 45 t CO2 per year in 2050 as a result of #efficiency gains in the system, ...

... cumulated emissions from this group increase to 14.3 Gt CO2 in 2050."

"In this estimate, US$2020 millionaires will deplete 72% of the 1.5 ◦C carbon budget (400 Gt CO2, 67% chance of staying within temperature range), or 25% of the 2 ◦C budget (1150 Gt CO2, 67% chance) over the next 30 years. ...

... There is also an important growth dynamic, as millionaire emissions will exceed total admissible annual emissions around 2037 under the 1.5 ◦C maximum warming scenario"

https://twitter.com/AgathoniaMedia/status/1629073206547034113?s=20

"Millionaire numbers will grow rapidly in Africa, Asia-Pacific, & Latin America... and in Europe and North America .... Here, the #question is whether it is even #thinkable to implement policies that will address the high emitters, for instance in the USA." #PlutOligarchy

"Our findings suggest that there is a very limited chance of changing emission trajectories to net zero over the next 30 years, if growth in millionaires and their emission patterns continues."

"the concentration of wealth at the top means that a significant share of the remaining carbon budget to 1.5 ◦C is depleted by a very small share of #humanity."

"Discussions of the wealthiest as contributing to particularly high emissions have featured prominently in the global #media, but there is less #evidence of #politicians taking up the issue in systematic ways"