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BREAKING NEWS: First Charges Filed in Trump-Russia Probe, At Least One Arrest Expected Soon cnn.com/2017/10/27/pol…
2/ I'd predicted the first charges would be filed in November, so this timeframe is even more aggressive than the one I'd been working from.
3/ We don't know who's going to be arrested on Monday—or, given that the news is public now, much sooner—but in order of likelihood I'd say:
4/ Manafort (previously informed by Mueller's agents he'd be indicted); small gap; Flynn (FARA and/or Making False Statements); big gap...
5/ Kushner (making sworn false statements; Obstruction); small gap; some other person previously undisclosed; small gap; Don (Obstruction).
6/ For investigative reasons, you'd tend to issue every indictment you're already prepared on all at once—unless you expect someone to roll.
7/ By no means does that suggest these indictments are "all Mueller has"—far from it. This is the beginning of the next stage in the probe.
8/ The moment charges are filed, you can begin exerting real pressure on witnesses, through their attorneys, to roll on the big fish—Trump.
9/ If the charges filed—once unsealed or reported on (somehow) while sealed—aren't very closely tied to collusion, Trump will go ballistic.
10/ The probe stage I predicted would begin in November is starting now. Mueller is now at risk of having Trump try to fire him at any time.
11/ This stage also brings the possibility we'll have announcement of a cooperating individual at any time—which would be earth-shattering.
12/ You only let a smaller fish wriggle free—or, more likely, simply receive less punishment—when they can help deliver a much bigger fish.
13/ So if the indictment is Trump's campaign manager, this "early" indictment suggests they will be pressing him to help them get the POTUS.
14/ I say that because if it's a random fish, the large target could be Manafort; if the fish is Manafort, the large target is likely Trump.
15/ There's little reason for Mueller to use Manafort to get Kushner, Don, or Page. Only Trump or the Attorney General would make any sense.
16/ (I should add: in the "likelihood ranking" I gave earlier, Sessions—perjury—ranks after Don. Page falls in the "other person" category.)
17/ The historic import of this moment can't be overstated. This is the beginning of something very big, however some may wish it's the end.
18/ If the indictment's for financial crimes, Mueller is moving very quickly here, as those cases—especially when international—are complex.
19/ If it's a testimonial or technical offense—perjury; making false statements; failing to register as a foreign agent—the case is simpler.
20/ If it's Obstruction, this is a *somewhat* fast indictment, as those cases can be hard to prove—though *not* as hard as some pundits say.
21/ One might seal a criminal indictment for many reasons, usually having to do with the investigation—e.g. when you want a witness to roll.
22/ You might also do it not to taint other witnesses, provoke a witness to flee or show your hand in terms of the facts you've accumulated.
23/ The fact that the indictment leaked relatively quickly means the identity of the defendant will leak quicker—as an arrest will be seen.
24/ And if somehow the feds bring the defendant in quietly and secretly, it seems clear we'll learn the defendant's identity in short order.
25/ Don't let pundits tell you the nature of the charge, or who's hit with it, shows Mueller's hand—this is the *beginning* of a long stage.
PS/ I agree with any who note this leak is bad. I also think this is the biggest criminal case of our lifetimes—so "no leaks" is impossible.
PS2/ Other *possible* (but perhaps presently unlikely) indictments: Sater; Papadopoulos; Millian; someone connected to Cambridge Analytica.
PS3/ Trump's random Russia tweet from 12 hours ago certainly suggests he may have had some advance sense an indictment was coming this week.
PS4/ Trump critics will be hoping the indictment is of Page—as that could only mean an indictment *directly* related to a Russia conspiracy.
PS5/ A Manafort charge would more likely be for unrelated financial crimes—less immediately newsworthy because we don't know if he'll flip.
PS6/ Flynn already offered to flip, so if he's charged many will assume the feds are now—unlike before—willing to take him up on the offer.
PS7/ Is it theoretically possible Flynn flipped long ago, and this sealed indictment is just a step in completing his cooperation deal? Yes.
PS8/ Is it possible the indictment is sealed because it's of someone no one is talking about—and Mueller wants to keep his cards close? Yes.
PS9/ The Russia probe—as it implicitly challenges the legitimacy of the POTUS—encompasses all other present political realities or battles.
PS10/ So don't let the POTUS distract you—as he *knows* the Russia probe could bring his entire house of cards (i.e. public policies) down.
NOTE/ When I wrote "announcement of a cooperating individual," I did not mean an announcement by Mueller—I meant via a leak and news report.
