With Turkey closing in on Afrin, the rejection of the Russian plan now seems a miscalculation by the YPG. But is it?
I argue here that it speaks of the folly of the long-held argument the YPG would eventually hand over areas to the regime in eastern Syria thenational.ae/opinion/commen…
I argue here that it speaks of the folly of the long-held argument the YPG would eventually hand over areas to the regime in eastern Syria thenational.ae/opinion/commen…
Continuing with the Afrin updates:
• the Turkish operation has now reached its second milestone.
• chips are falling in favor of Turkey in northern Syria, whether the YPG chooses to stand & fight or not.
• contrary to consensus, I still believe Turkey won’t take the city.
• the Turkish operation has now reached its second milestone.
• chips are falling in favor of Turkey in northern Syria, whether the YPG chooses to stand & fight or not.
• contrary to consensus, I still believe Turkey won’t take the city.
• with Turkey being on a roll diplomatically & militarily, the question for the YPG is where/how this will stop
• none of the YPG’s friends is willing to stand up & stop Turkey
• on the contrary, the US & Russia now seek to accommodate Ankara concerns; Iran has limited options
• none of the YPG’s friends is willing to stand up & stop Turkey
• on the contrary, the US & Russia now seek to accommodate Ankara concerns; Iran has limited options
If the YPG loses control of its areas west of the Euphrates, this will truly have significant implications. For one, no reason to engage Russia as its areas will be under the US protection only. I see Russia & the regime losing the ability to play this card, as explained 👆
Losing its territories in Afrin & potentially Manbij could diminish the YPG’s territorial hold that has given it leverage with the regime & its allies. If that happens, the YPG will only be under US protection & wont be able to play the Russia card as it has so far done...
... and the telling choices the YPG has made in Afrin has already shown 1) the idea of handing over areas to the regime doesn’t hold water. 2) despite the multiple obvious gains, the regime still didn’t make concessions to the YPG that’d suggest it’d accept a trade for autonomy.
Curious, how likely is it that Turkey & the US align in Syria & build on the two Nato allies’ spheres of influence? Seems like a potential shift with game-changing implications, bringing an end to the Russia-Turkey alliance to rearrange the jigsaw pieces of the Syrian conflict.
Provocative but supports the idea the US-Turkey divergence is the biggest glitch in the US plan:
"Only Turkey has the credibility, resources & geopolitical heft to steward US interests. Alternatively, if left unmanaged, Turkey can spoil America’s plans." ti.me/2GhA25P
"Only Turkey has the credibility, resources & geopolitical heft to steward US interests. Alternatively, if left unmanaged, Turkey can spoil America’s plans." ti.me/2GhA25P
Latest map of the Afrin fighting:
Today's:
Turkey seems to be opting for a “bucket color fill” to take the western flank of Afrin rather than to go to the city for now?
