I'm surprised not reading any analysis yet on the link between the electoral victory of Turkish nationalist MHP and the issue of Syrian refugees.
A potential post-election driving wedge between Erdogan and MHP is the future of 3.5 Syrian refugees.
#Turkey
A potential post-election driving wedge between Erdogan and MHP is the future of 3.5 Syrian refugees.
#Turkey
In post-election victory speech, with an understanding heightened resentment against the refugees, Erdogan repeated that they will be relocated back to Syria. Despite rhetoric, however, Erdogan will face tough challenges to send millions of refugees back to insecure #Syria.
Turkish economy has already absorbed the refugees as cheap labor—a reality that drives higher unemployment rates among Turks, increasing public anxiety. Turkish government may even face a bigger problem if Damascus assaults Idlib to push 2 million civilians into Turkey’s borders.
The deterioration of Turkish economy makes the refugees vulnerable for scapegoating: 35 people died in refugee-related violence in 2017.
The electoral constituency of MHP would share the Turkish opposition’s argument that Erdogan’s inconsistent Syria policy is the main cause behind the Syrian refugee crisis.
MHP will remain supportive of Turkish military operations against Syrian Kurds; however, Turkish nationalists are likely to increase their criticism of Erdogan’s close alliance with Syrian rebels—especially in the case Turkey’s plans for Idlib fails and Turkish economy worsens.
