There are reportedly 100s of variants of novichok. Why hasn't UK said which variant was supposedly used on the Skripals? This abstract from a 2000 article says it can easily be made from ingredients found in most pesticide factories. Is that accurate? 
Ah, but here's a textbook from 2007 in which the author says he's essentially guesstimating the compounds. books.google.com/books?id=y2FwG…
Vil S. Mirzayanov, who helped create novichok, has a book. Unfortunately, there's no preview on Google Books. books.google.com/books?id=1aJQP…
But Mirzayanov's recent statements in the press claim both 1) novichok can be made with easy-to-find components and 2) only Russia knows how to make it. cnn.com/2018/03/13/wor…
I've seen a lot of people claim Porton Down has samples of novichok. Not sure this has been 100% confirmed? This Chemistry World article says Porton Down would have undoubtedly synthesized some. chemistryworld.com/news/russian-n…
And if Porton Down could make novichok, so could others, right?
Here's a former Kremlin adviser claiming every lab in the West has samples of novichok. sputniknews.com/analysis/20180…
Surely if Britain could identify novichok, that means they could make it, right? Or is that a faulty assumption? (In case you couldn't tell, I'm no chemist.) (Also, in case you couldn't tell, this thread is not leading toward any sort of grand conclusion.)
Now, remember, Britain hasn't turned over any samples. And despite a lot of over-extrapolated claims in the media, UK did NOT say novichok could *only* come from Russia. Rather, fingering Russia was more of a "totality of the circumstances" analysis. washingtonpost.com/world/europe/r…
For his part, former UK ambassador to Uzbekistan (and reputed Wikileaks envoy) Craig Murray suggests novichok may not exist at all! craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/…
In 1999, the U.S. helped destroy the CW lab where novichok was reportedly created. Apparently, novichok was also tested nearby. Note the article doesn't actually say the U.S. found any novichok there. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-paci…
As Murray notes, in 2013, the OPCW was skeptical enough of the existence of novichoks that they left it off their banned list. craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/…
OPCW considered adding novichoks to their banned list 3 times (in 2011, 2012, and 2013), and each time declined. google.com/search?ei=kHWq…
So, with so little information out there about novichoks, how did Porton Down identify them? Has anyone tried contacting Robin Black, the former(?) head of the Detection Laboratory at Porton Down, to ask him why in 2016 he said the existence of novichok hadn't been confirmed?
But the obvious problem with this novichok-doesn't-exist theory is this: If that were true, why wouldn't Russia be shouting that from the rooftops right now?
Rather, Russia's argument appears to be, "Hey, we destroyed all our chemical weapons already." That was confirmed by the OPCW last year. opcw.org/news/article/o…
CW expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who's been working overtime to feed the line that only Russia could've done it, claims that novichok was *only* ever made at one CW lab in central Russia. theguardian.com/world/2018/mar…
That would seem to contradict the 1999 BBC story about the U.S. helping to destroy the Uzbek lab where novichok was made (and tested in open air), linked to in this tweet:
Moreover, even if novichoks were traditionally only made at this one lab, why would Russia (or anyone else) not be able to make some more. According to Mirzayanov, novichok is relatively simple to make with organophosphate ingredients.
And let's pull back a little. This attempted murder is being pinned on Russia, despite the fact that investigators don't even know where exactly it was supposed to have taken place! theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/m…
And why have we heard and seen nothing from the Skripals and the affected cop? It's oddly difficult to find updates on their condition. Info is so murky, this tabloid says Yulia's friends wonder if she might already be dead! dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-ne…
Here are a couple of Yulia's friends asking about her condition. Seems crazy the answers to these questions aren't known. dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-ne…
FWIW (probably not much), Sergei's niece thinks Yulia was the actual target of the hit and that she was being offed because her bf's mom (a highly ranked Russian official) didn't like the idea of her son marrying a traitor's daughter. news.com.au/world/europe/t…
Ahh, just saw this. So Boris Johnson says the UK will submit a sample of the novichok used in the attack to the OPCW. aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/u…
Whatever happens with the Skripal affair, it will have been a great boon to the UK's own chemical weapons lab. ft.com/content/d78f43…
Miryazanov has a blog, on which he wrote a good deal defending his decision to publish the formulas for novichok in his book. He argues terrorists aren't able to manufacture CW and he was trying to get novichok banned under CWC.
vilmirzayanov.blogspot.com/2009/02/novich…
vilmirzayanov.blogspot.com/2009/02/novich…
Weirdly, he brings up Aum Shinrikyo—an obvious case of terrorists making and deploying a nerve agent—only to dismiss it. I don't understand his argument: Novichok is less volatile than sarin, and that's why it couldn't possibly be used by terrorists? Surely the opposite is true?
If you'd prefer to hear the same argument through a thick Tatar accent, here's a video of Mirzayanov reading one of his blog posts.
Odd statement here from Mirzayanov vilmirzayanov.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-i-…
Interesting, The Daily Telegraph is reporting the novichok was planted in the daughter's suitcase, which would suggest she was the intended target.
Could Sergei's niece be right? Was this all a personal vendetta carried out by Yulia's boyfriend's mom? It does kind of make the pieces fit together...
The bf's mom is a government official, could have contacts who either have access to novichok or know how to make it. She hires them to do the hit. UK seizes on it bc of Russomania. And in true Iannuccian fashion, it explodes into an international clusterfuck.
But at this point the May government has pushed the "Putin chemical weapon terrorist" angle so ferociously, it's going to be hard to climb back down to a conclusion that this was just some fucked up family shit, if indeed that is the case.
Here's the Guardian (which has been hitting the "Russia did it" line as hard as anyone") injecting a bit of skepticism into the government's claims. They even quote Craig Murray. amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/m…
And here's a BBC journalist noting the strong possibility that novichok might have gotten loose.
Mark Urban has also noted that he's been told Porton Down obtained novichok precursor chemicals from Russia clandestinely. (h/t @2ndNewMoon)
Russia has requested access to Yulia Skripal's hospital room, which, because she's a Russian citizen, is apparently obligation under Vienna Convention. Sounds like that's been declined. (Bloomberg journalist treats this like it's some kind of nefarious gamesmanship.)
Well worth reading this piece from Charles Murray responding to a chemist who challenged his earlier article about novichoks. craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/…
Key point is contained in this exchange in which the chemist admits what I think all of us basically know--that there's no way to establish that the nerve agent was manufactured in Russia purely through chemistry. UK government has heavily (and intentionally) suggested otherwise.
Not sure what to make of this, but it's a realllly strange coincidence, particularly given how obscure novichok is. (major h/t @BayosHarmonicas)
Latest update from Craig Murray (@CraigMurrayOrg)Porton Down didn't determine the nerve agent was manufactured in Russia, only that it was made with the same sorts of commonly available precursors associated with novichok production.
Forgot to include the link: craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/… Murray also says he has submitted a request to the OPCW to confirm whether there has ever been proof of the existence of Russian novichoks.
Murray notes that the UK government has been extremely careful to refer to the nerve agent used in the Skripal poisoning as “of a type developed by Russia.” Per Murray's source, this language was a compromise formulation after intense pressure on PD to pin it on Russia.
UK agreed yesterday to submit a sample to the OPCW. Murray argues the plan is to get the OPCW to sign on to the same hedge-y but guilt-insinuating "of a type developed by Russia" language. craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/…
"The British could easily have synthesized [novichok] on the basis of the formulas in my book." Clearest statement I've seen from Mirzayanov that novichok could be produced by anyone with the means.
Here's the link: voanews.com/a/russian-chem…
Mirzayanov's statement about fine-tuning seems like a red herring since 1) it's not clear this agent was particularly fine-tuned and 2) Porton (likely) doesn't have a Russian sample to compare it to anyway.
Mirzayanov's statement about fine-tuning seems like a red herring since 1) it's not clear this agent was particularly fine-tuned and 2) Porton (likely) doesn't have a Russian sample to compare it to anyway.
This is odd. Mirzayanov is supposedly the only reason the West even knows about novichok. Shouldn't Porton Down, UK investigators, and/or the OPCW be interested in talking to this guy?
