THREAD: With the news that John Bolton will become National Security Advisor on 4/9, are his views on North Korea really so bad? A close look shows he’s genuinely one of the most extreme, irresponsible, and dangerous voices in the country.
2. The first thing to note is that Bolton has plainly disparaging of Trump administration policy. Trump's pressure campaign has not brought Kim to the table, has been too weak, and has not changed anything. Days after the first DPRK missile launch, Bolton argued: 
3. Many now agree that carrots and sticks are likely to be ineffective so the allies will have to deter and manage a nuclear-armed North Korea. Bolton says, “this is unacceptable” and favors a military option. wsj.com/articles/the-m…
4. Which military option? In the article, he outlines three: a strike against nuclear facilities, against a test missile prior to launch, or to assassinate Kim Jong-un and invade. The next paragraph is chilling:
5. Bolton is apparently indifferent between his three war plans, an astonishingly lazy and careless argument for an office meant to bring rationality to security policy. Bolton wants war; he doesn’t care how, doesn’t really care if allies agree, doesn’t worry about the damage.
6. It’s hard to overstate how extremist this view is. While there are other commentators that want limited strikes, I’m hard pressed to think of anyone that openly condones invasion. It would almost certainly lead to nuclear use and the deaths of millions.
7. When would Bolton's strikes occur? Soon. Citing Pompeo’s January assessment that “Pyongyang was within a handful of months,” Bolton sees incomplete US intelligence on DPRK as weighing in favor of an early strike.
8. Bolton has consistently peddled a bizarre fantasy that China can be coerced into “either overthrowing the regime, merging the two Koreas effectively under South Korea’s control.” This is diametrically antithetical to China’s interests and actions.
9. Bolton says China can be convinced if we move US forces “into Guam, to Japan, into the Yellow Sea and the East Sea.” It is surreal & frankly irrational to imagine Beijing, with US forces on their doorstep, deciding to invade DPRK, then handing it over.
10. What of the inchoate talks? Bolton says they are “a waste of time,” mean “nothing,” yet supports them to make an ultimatum for instant denuclearization, cause talks to fail, and lay the path for war. Does Bolton tell Trump this or does he lie to him?
11. Bolton is dismissive of any phased denuclearization plan. Trump should say: “tell me what ports American ships should sail into… so we can load your nuclear weapons program… next week.” This man is supposed to set negotiating strategy?
12. “On sanctions, I don’t think they’re going to have much impact. I’m in favor of every new sanction on North Korea, don’t get me wrong.” Again, lazy thinking poorly suited to policymaking that stands in direct contrast to administration policy.
13. Bolton is consistently disparaging of our allies in Seoul, holds a basic misunderstanding that Moon is practicing a sunshine policy. With the talks overture, Pyongyang is “playing on the gullibility of the current South Korean government.”
14. “They’re like putty in North Korea’s hands, it’s very emotional for South Koreans, I understand it, but…there’s a sucker born every minute.” (He stops swinging his sledgehammer for a moment to claim it’s DPRK that’s driving a wedge into the alliance.)
15. Bolton also consistently peddles the idea that DPRK and Iran cooperate on nuclear technology, despite lacking evidence. Like he did with Iraq WMD, Bolton is convinced it is true. As NSA, he may very well try to bend intelligence to suit his narrative. washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/article…
16. In the end, Bolton may well prove unable to implement his horrifying vision: the JCS and IC may be absolutely clear any strike could have devastating results and no benefits; allies may clearly and publicly resist war; the media may be vigilant for preparations.
17. But his appointment will terrify allies, further degrade a broken policy process, and raise the risk of war. Bolton is a zealot, divorced from all military facts and political reality, possessed of total certainty in a ruinous policy—and apparently selected because of it.
