0/10: Let me outline - in 10 tweets - what the sanctions on #Russia have achieved so far, since 2014, economically & geopolitically, from the perspective of the law of unintended consequences: +
1) Sanctions induce ruble devaluation, which improves fiscal balance for the Federal state (aka, Putin) & profitability (& sustainability of state-owned enterprises); +
2/10: + 2) Sanctions make ruble devaluations more ‘palatable' for Kremlin, politically, by creating a popular momentum to support the regime in the face of ‘foreign interventions’; +
3/10: + 3) Sanctions drive more concentration of the Russian economic activities in the hands of the State by inducing bailouts & monetary financing; +
4/10: + 4) Sanctions increase attractiveness of Russian state-owned and/or state-linked military-industrial exports, while decreasing ability of genuine private enterprises to raise finance & transact internationally; +
5/10: + 5) Sanctions are driving Russia closer to China, Iran etc, creating a de facto subsidy for Chinese in accessing Russian resources; +
6/10: + 6) Sanctions are being used by Moscow as a tool to keep in check any genuine internal opposition, control capital flows to sectors & even to limit inflation; +
7/10: + 7) Sanctions subsidise the Western-based 'loud mouth' Russian ‘opposition’ that has zero footprint in Russia, & no genuine chance of challenging current regime; +
8/10: + 8) Sanctions are directly hitting ordinary Russians, Russian diaspora & ex-pats - key diasporas/populations that should be the natural allies of the West in democratisation process; +
9/10: + 9) Sanctions have resulted in Russia gaining geopolitical capital around the world as a successful challenger to the U.S. multilateralism (rightly or wrongly - irrelevant), and +
10/10: + 10) Sanctions have shown complete & total lack of strategic policy formation behind the U.S.-led positioning, as they neither lead to any outcomes, nor accompany a clear roadmap to achieving any clear objectives. +
10/0: + End of summary. Now, think. Putin wants to on-shore Russian capital from the West. Any better way to achieve that goal than by telling all Russians (oligarchs & ordinary ones) that you are all pawns in Washington-Moscow games of ‘whack-the-mole’? Good luck.
