Last week we polled 12 House districts for @PatriotMajority that are sort of 'wave election' districts for Democrats- 9 of them are lean Republican, 2 likely GOP, and 1 toss up according to @CookPolitical They were all competitive, but the enthusiasm numbers were most striking...
In AR-2 French Hill won 58-37 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Clarke Tucker 47-42 now, and among the 53% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Tucker leads 48-47
In IL-12 Mike Bost won 54-40 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Brendan Kelly 44-39 now, and among the 43% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Kelly leads 50-42
In IL-13 Rodney Davis won 60-40 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan 45-42 now, and among the 50% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Dirksen-Londrigan leads 48-44
In IL-14 Randy Hultgren won 59-41 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Lauren Underwood 45-41 now, and among the 51% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Underwood leads 52-40
In MI-8 Mike Bishop won 56-39 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Elissa Slotkin 46-41 now, and among the 56% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Slotkin leads 49-44
In NC-9 Robert Pittenger won 58-41 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Dan McCready 42-37 now, and among the 52% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, McCready leads 47-44
In NC-13 Ted Budd won 46-44 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Kathy Manning 43-40 now, and among the 53% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Manning leads 49-39
In NJ-3 Tom McArthur won 59-39 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Andy Kim 42-41 now, and among the 48% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Kim leads 50-40
In OH-1 Steve Chabot won 59-41 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Aftab Pureval 43-42 now, and among the 45% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Pureval leads 47-43
In VA-2 Scott Taylor won 61-39 in 2016. He only leads Democrat Elaine Luria 48-42 now, and among the 57% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Luria leads 47-45
In WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers won 62-38 in 2016. She only leads Democrat Lisa Brown 48-45 now, and among the 55% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, Brown leads 57-40
And in FL-16 Vern Buchanan won 60-40 in 2016. He only leads Democrat David Shapiro 49-37 now, and among the 58% of voters who are 'very excited' to turn out this year, his lead shrinks to 48-44
Democrats could probably win a majority in the House without winning any of these 12 districts. The fact that they are so close in so many of them- and leading among people 'very excited' to vote this year- speaks to some unexpected pick ups in a possible wave election
The lack of popularity of the tax plan is a big piece of why these districts are all so competitive, as outlined in this memo for @PatriotMajority docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_7bc…
