1/Thread - a snapshot of current polling in midst of #Kavanaugh fight. Using @FiveThirtyEight over last few weeks Trump's favs improved a bit, now 41.5/52.8 but the generic has worsened for the Rs, now stands at 49.6/40.9. Both these results suggest a very good year for the Ds.
2/My take is Rs now have a very low ceiling across the country. Of 45 top Gov/Senate/House battlegrounds w/recent polls Rs over 50% in only 4 or 5 (not incl TX Sen or AZ Gov); and have no lead outside margin of error in any Gov or Sen battleground. realclearpolitics.com
3/Rs not leading in governor's races in FL, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA and NV - all critical 2020 battlegrounds. Could end up winning some but GOP can't be happy here.
4/GOP wipeout in MI and PA deserves far more attention. 4 GOP candidates for MI and PA Gov and Senate in the 30s. The 30s. Dems likely to win these races by 15-25 points in two of Trump's most important states.
5/Very strong showing of Dems in AZ, CA and TX continues a trend we first saw in 2016 - Trumpism is not playing well in this region of the country. Very good #s too for Ds in CO, NM, NV. Keep an eye on this. ndn.org/blog/2018/05/b…
6/House. Using @CookPolitical ratings, Ds are on track to clearly win 203 seats, and need to win 15 of remaining 57 Toss Up/Lean Rs seats to flip the House. In @Nate_Cohn's latest polling of 30 of these districts, Ds have leads outside margin of error in 9 races, Rs in only 5.
7/In addition, Rs are at 45% or below in 9 additional races. So 9 clear leads, 9 other races Rs underperforming late in lean D year, only 5 clear leads. So let's be generous and say parties split those 57 districts. Dems end up w/about 230 seats.
8) But to be very clear - Democrats do not have this thing in the bag. It is leaning their way. But most competitive races for Gov/Sen/House are too close to call, so any late swing either way could be very meaningful. Why shakeout on this #Kavanaugh fiasco matters so much.
9/Correction. Using @CookPolitical ratings, Ds are on track to clearly win 205 seats, and need to win 13 of remaining 57 Toss Up/Lean Rs seats to flip the House. Right now Dems are on track, based on the analysis above, to get that done.
