Thread: Trump’s decision to withdraw form the #Irandeal may prove to be the most calamitous move of his already turbulent administration. It will cause an alliance rift, provoke an Iranian backlash and stimulate a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. 1/x
Reimposing secondary sanctions on firms that do business with Iran will create the deepest division between Europe & US since the Iraq war. This time it will be worse, since no European state sides with the US. 2/x
Beyond Europe, American credibility worldwide will go down the tubes. America will be seen as senseless and arrogant. 3/x
Iran will push back, to show that it cannot be bullied. It will take some steps in the nuclear realm, increasing enrichment activity & decrease cooperation with inspectors. Iran's main response, however, will probably be asymmetrical, harming US interests in other realms. 4/x
While it may not be immediate, an Iranian push-back is inevitable. 5/x
Trump's decision will also unleash the pent-up potential for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. When Iran expands enrichment w/o the careful verification required under the JCPOA, Saudi Arabia will feel compelled to follow suit 6/x
As long as Iran was constrained and closely inspected, the Saudis could afford to put off their nuclear ambitions. Now their calculations change. 7/x
The NPT also is imperilled. Rejection of the diplomatic solution to the Iran issue undermines the underpinnings of the nuclear order. It gives a new writ to nuclear lawlessness, since Iran's having abided by the agreed rules will be proven to have been in vain. 8/8
