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Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This has been the French stance since 2014. Robust measures against Russian breaches of international law, conciliatory language in the Gaullist tradition of "Lisbon to Vladivostok" to give Putin and successors an off ramp and position France well if there is a shift to detente
So the balance Macron worked through was in a continuity with signals sent by France and the EU since 2014. If Russia opts to de-escalate in Donbas and back off Ukraine, Crimea will be isolated through sanctions that don't affect the rest of Russia
The outcome for Ukraine the EU has clearly signalled it can live with is a Cyprus scenario. Where the aggressor keeps some gains that are isolated by sanctions but backs off the rest of Ukraine. Once de-escalation happens back to business as usual
The fact that the Ukrainian government was demonstratively unfussed by Macron's visit to Russia is a signal that Kyiv knows the score and can live with it as long as the path to further European integration is clear. With a 280 000 man army Ukraine has agency
Also worth keeping in mind that there is a strand of thought in Kyiv that keeping more pro-Russian regions out of Ukraine for a certain period of time makes it easier to consolidate Ukraine's strength as a nation state. Retaking them is seen as a long term project
Important to occasionally point out that EU policy towards Russia only hardened significantly after Donbas escalated and #MH17. Balance between support for Ukraine and regular dealings with Moscow in areas not hit by sanctions isn't a deviation from EU policy. It is EU policy
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