Thread by @FrankJannuzi

Initial impressions of Trump-Kim:
Positive side of ledger:
1) Met.
2) Reiterated vague commitments to peace/denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.
3) Agreed to resume POW/MIA remains recovery ops. (I have written on this in past, and why it is important.)
4) Agreed keep talking

Negative side of ledger (brace yourselves...long list.)
1) repeats past deal language (92, 94, 2000, 2005, 2012), but has vaguest language on denuclearization since ‘92. Big step backwards.
2) 0 details on what denuclearization means, how to accomplish, or when to start.

Weaknesses continued:
3) No mention of missiles, CBW conventional arms, armistice, human rights, terrorism (they’re on the list of state sponsors), Japanese abduction victims.
4) no commitment by DPRK to rejoin NPT and ratify CTBT, or EVEN to suspend production of Pu and HEU.

Communique weaknesses continued:
5) no explicit commitment by DPRK to suspend missile testing - and no clarity on the “gray area” of space launch vehicles that has caused trouble in past agreements (Leap Day Debacle of 2012).
6) no agreement to invite IAEA inspectors back.

NOT in the agreement, but promised by Trump: suspension of US conventional military exercises with ROK. This Trump move, worthy of Chamberlain, apparently caught both ROK and DOD SecDef Mattis by surprise. Trump Admin had vehemently rejected China’s “freeze for freeze” proposal.

Freezing joint US-ROK conventional exercises in exchange for DPRK freezing fissile material production was an idea worthy of study - and might have been useful IF DPRK had also frozen its conventional exercises. But giving away US exercises for nothing? That is simply nuts.

Big picture:
Summit is potential game changer for mood/atmosphere. Trump welcomed DPRK into community of nations, bestowing gifts of prestige, honor, legitimacy, and relaxation of military and economic pressure. In return, KJU offered a watered down version of previous promises.

Completely missing from the statement? Any specific steps - NOT ONE - to show that KJU is serious about denuclearization. For example, if he’s serious about abandoning his nukes, why not suspend making MORE fissile material?

What has NOT changed since the “historic” summit in Singapore:
DPRK is still spinning thousands of centrifuges making more HEU for bombs;
Yongbyon reactor still operating generating more Pu for bombs;
KPA still arrayed along border with ROK, ranging Seoul with artillery.

What else constant?
DPRK still listed as a state sponsor of terrorism;
DPRK missile production and nuclear weapons production unconstrained;
No word on Japanese abduction victims or missing ROK citizens;
120,000 North Koreans in gulags;
25m enduring human rights violations;

To be fair, this summit is the start of a process, not the end. We will have months (actually, years) to assess the progress or lack thereof toward the goals of peace and denuclearization. This was ALWAYS going to be a process; a long journey with many obstacles along the way.

But when starting a journey, it’s good to have an agreed goal - we don’t...no details at all on what denuclearization looks like or how peace will be forged.
It is also good to have a full tank of gas. We are running on empty and our gps isn’t working.

Worse still, while DJT was takin’ a leak, Kim Jong-un slid into the driver’s seat, told Moon Jae-in to get in the back seat, invited two hitchhikers of questionable character to join us (Xi Jinping and Putin), and locked Abe in the trunk!

To get back on course, we need to tell Kim junior to get out from behind the wheel and sit in back, hand Moon the keys, have Trump sit shotgun, have Melania ask for directions, borrow some money from Xi for gas and road food, get Abe out of the trunk, and lock Putin in there.