1/ Brexitlandia musings while the House of Commons debates what Brexit means
2/ If it is now agreed by amendment that there can be no hard border in Ireland, it follows that "no deal" does not seem to be an option. Never say never, but it would seem too late for Brexiters to oust May and replace her with the Ghost of Victorian Past @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
3/ So if there is to be no border what is the minimum the UK will have to agree? It would seem to be continuation in the single market and EU VAT regime and agreeing a customs union that is basically the same as the customs union
4/ While the amendment on a customs union was lost yesterday the amendment proposed by @S_Hammond requiring a customs union in the trade bill is still being put forward - that has not gone away and it seems there is a majority for that
5/ The Government conceded two thirds of the Grieve amendment but not the final third though offered assurances which turn out to be different to what the Rebel Alliance believe was promised. So...
6/ Unless the Government proposed amendment gives the Rebel Alliance what they want, the Lords seem likely to reinsert the Grieve amendment and there would seem to be a majority for that amendment in the Commons as the Rebel Alliance grows and seems to now number at least 14
7/ If that amendment passes, Parliament can direct Government. Given a customs union is not enough to prevent a hard border it will need participation in the single market.
8/ Barnier has said the Labour position of "Better than Norway" is not available but EEA and a customs union is - which is also the way to preserve no hard border in Ireland.
9/ With the time left to find a solution, Parliament could direct the Government to also seek to stay within the EEA.
10/ So it seems that could still be on the table even if the EEA amendment loses today.
11/ So the likely deal now seems to be single market participation and a customs union. And probably some money thrown in and participation in a range of EU agencies, such as EASA, EURATOM...
12/At which point Parliament may well vote on whether to accept the deal or remain in the EU. No deal remember is off the table because of the amendment on no hard border accepted yesterday.
13/ But this being the Uk, we get this
